The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is upon us, and Florida Football fans should at least get to enjoy the cocktail part in Jacksonville before having to funnel into the stadium and watch the Gators attempt to overcome a massive spread to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year.
Do the Gators have a chance? Well, ESPN claims a 20% chance.
So you're saying there's a chance...
Florida Football: May The Odds Forever Be In Your Favor
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Georgia (+14.5) | 52.5 Points | UGA -650/UF +475 |
The narrative surrounding Florida is that they have looked much better in their last three games, and there is hope they are turning a corner. We here at Hail Florida Hail would agree that there are some things that look better, but one would be naive to ignore the caveats of this "turnaround."
As we pointed out earlier this week, the four teams Florida has beaten this season have a combined record of 10-21 this season. Billy Napier has only beaten three teams at Florida who finished the season with a winning record. The Gators are 0-6 under Napier when they are a double-digit underdog, and the biggest "upset" they have pulled is when there were 5.5 point underdogs to Tennessee in 2023.
At the core of what Florida has benefitted from these last three weeks are QBs who were so wildly inaccurate that somewhere out there, even Treon Harris is thinking to himself, "That's bad."
UCF has benched KJ Jefferson, Nico Iamaleava missed multiple wide-open touchdowns, and Brock Vandergift also missed open guys while his receivers had passes doink off their hands.
Well, Carson Beck has had his fair share of moments in 2024 that are in line with the previous three QBs that the Gators have faced. As we highlighted this week, Beck has a completion rate of nearly 40% when under pressure. And while his completion rate is 70% when his pocket is clean, seven of his eight interceptions this season have come with a clean pocket.
So there is a narrative that could take place where Beck self-implodes a couple of times and misses a couple of open receivers to extend drives that allows Florida to get off the field just enough times to hang around.
And if you want to continue down the train of hope, DJ Lagway gives Florida a chance that Graham Mertz was never going to give them. Just the ability to take the top off the defense can create just enough hesitation from the secondary to open up Florida's run game just enough to sustain drives and potentially shorten this game.
But...
What has done the Gators in the past three years against the Bulldogs has been getting mauled in the trenches. Florida has looked better in the trenches since their disaster class of performance to open the year, but the unit has also had the benefit of facing three teams with lower talent profiles. Georgia will be as talented of a unit on both sides of the line they will face and convential wisdom would tell you that is a battle Georgia is going to win.
Combine that with the fact that Jason Marshall is out, and Georgia has had two weeks to prepare for Napier's offense, and there are too many factors working against Florida to pick them in good faith.
Unless DJ Lagway just goes crazy and Carson Beck implodes, we are picking a Georgia win 34-17.