Florida Football needs to avoid death by 1,000 paper cuts against Kentucky
![Florida Gators linebacker Grayson Howard (10) tackles Samford Bulldogs wide receiver E. Jai Mason (3) during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 7, 2024 against the Samford Bulldogs. The Florida Gators won 45-7 over the Bulldogs. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_3115,h_1752,x_0,y_0/c_fill,w_1080,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images%2FImagnImages%2Fmmsport%2F213%2F01jafvaks9hfrxear6cs.jpg "Florida Gators linebacker Grayson Howard (10) tackles Samford Bulldogs wide receiver E. Jai Mason (3) during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 7, 2024 against the Samford Bulldogs. The Florida Gators won 45-7 over the Bulldogs. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]")
Entering Saturday's contest against Kentucky, Florida Football feels like their defense is starting to turn a corner. Since the bye week, the Gators have felt more aggressive and have had back-to-back outstanding performances after getting gashed the first four weeks of the season.
On paper, Florida shouldn't give up more than 20 points to Kentucky. But even if the Gators pull that off, it doesn't mean Florida's defense had an effective day.
Florida Football: Slow And Steady
The over/under for Saturday's game is set at 42.5 points. That's a comically low number for college football, and yet it still feels like there is a minimal pathway for the over to hit.
A big reason for that is that Kentucky is the embodiment of three yards and a cloud of dust in 2024.
On average, Kentucky only runs 65 plays on offense per game, 95th in the country, and their defense only faces 51 plays per game, the fewest in the country. Kentucky's offense is 99th in points per play, while their defense is 20th in points per play. Against FBS competition, Kentucky is averaging 20 points per game, 104th in the country, while their defense is giving up just 14 points per game, 9th in the country.
These metrics would all point to a squad with an ineffective offense that can't sustain drives but who also has a rock-solid defense that turns every game into a rock fight.
But there are two other stats that should give Florida fans a "buyer beware" signal before assuming Florida's defense will just get the ball right back.
Kentucky takes, on average, 29.9 seconds between plays. That is the 8th slowest time in the country.
And perhaps the most relevant stat of them all is that Kentucky punts the ball 0.8 times for every drive that ends in a score. In other words, more drives end in points than punts for Kentucky, and they are 55th in this metric, just a tick below Texas A&M, Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia.
The moral is not to focus on how many points the Gators give up on Saturday. Focus on how many drives end in points versus how many drives end in punts.
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