Florida Football is banking on hope, not data, that Billy Napier can turn it around
A wise man once said, "What should be done eventually, must be done immediately," and as a result, Florida Football went on to win two more national titles. In 2024, Florida's administration is taking the approach of "What do you mean that is something you want us to do?"
Billy Napier is coming back for the 2025 season. Maybe he succeeds, maybe he doesn't. But for Napier to have success, it would fly in the face of all relevant data available about how long it takes a coach to turn into a winner.
Florida Football: May The Odds Forever Be In Your Favor
If Napier were to somehow pull off the miracle of miracles and win out the rest of the season, he would finish the year 9-4. The first step in that journey is overcoming a 21.5-point spread against Texas.
Go get 'em, cowboy.
So, let's pretend that doesn't happen. Pick whatever final win total you want, but let's just pretend Florida doesn't win nine games this season.
No big deal, you may think, but there is a simple reality that if Billy Napier was going to have meaningful success at Florida, it would happen within the first three years of being in Gainesville.
Every single team ranked in the top 16 of the initial College Football Playoff Rankings is led by a coach who won at least nine games within their first three years of being at that school. 13 of the 16 coaches did it in two years.
And if you think nine wins is too high of a bar, 23 of the 25 ranked teams are led by a coach who won at least eight games in their first three years with that program. 20 of the 25 ranked teams won at least eight games within two years.
"But Ben, Dan Mullen left the roster bare, and Napier has had to rebuild from scratch."
Napier's 2022 squad was ranked 14th in the 247 Talent Composite and had six players drafted, and others like Brenton Cox and Trey Dean stuck around as undrafted free agents.
The 2023 squad was still ranked 15th in the Talent Composite, and this year's group is ranked 12th. It's not a perfect metric, but let's not pretend Mullen left Napier with nothing to work with.
If Florida goes on to a successful 2025 campaign, we will be happy, and we will cheer on the team.
But to pull that off means he will be going against what the data says is expected.
It also doesn't change the fact that he wasted three years to get there when everyone else in the country figured it out now.