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Florida Football feels they have turned a corner. Vegas odds don't buy it yet.

Florida is a massive underdog against Georgia

By Benjamin Henderson

Oct 19, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier looks on against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Oct 19, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier looks on against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
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There has been a narrative pushed by some all week for Florida Football that beating Kentucky is a sign they might be turning a corner. As we have written throughout the week, beating the Wildcats was a nice win for the team but there are many more steps to go before we are convinced Napier has found the magic switch.

But if you don't want to take the word of someone living in their basement, then take the word of the people who build skyscrapers in the desert.

Florida Football: Dog To The Dawgs

The initial betting lines from FanDuel have been released for the contest formerly known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and they do not paint a pretty picture for Florida. The Gators are listed as 18.5-point underdogs, an increase of the 14-point spread from last season.

526. Georgia +18.5. 3:30. 6-1. 527. ABC. November 2. Team. 4-3

The large number is significant because of this idea that beating a 3-4 Kentucky squad is a sign that Florida has figured some things out and is poised for a big finish. To some extent, DJ Lagway does provide Florida with a much better ceiling to upset a team like Georiga. Yet as we saw against Tennessee, Billy Napier can't get out of his own way.

But Vegas has also struggled with Florida this year. Not counting the game against Samford, Vegas has been off on Florida games by an average of 15.5 points this season.

This has gone both ways, as Florida was just a two-point underdog to Miami and a three-point underdog to Texas A&M before losing by double digits to both. Likewise, Florida was an underdog to both UCF and Kentucky before winning those games by double digits.

What Napier hasn't been able to do, though, is get over the hump when he is a double-digit underdog. While he is 4-2 against the spread when a double-digit dog, Napier is 0-6 straight up in these games. The biggest "upset" he's been able to pull off is when Florida beat Tennessee last year as 5.5-point underdogs.

It all paints a picture of a squad whose confidence has not convinced people outside of Gainesville and who have yet to have a genuine "Take that haters" moment in the Napier Era.

Next Saturday will be their next shot at getting that moment.

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