Florida Basketball cruised its opening round win over Norfolk State, but veteran NCAA Tournament watchers know that the level of difficulty ramps up immediately starting in round two.
With a berth on the Sweet 16 on the line, the Gators are taking on two-time defending national champion UConn, who beat Oklahoma in their opening round.
Florida Basketball: Walk The Dog
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Florida 9.5 Points | 150 Points | Florida (-550) |
9.5 points is a massive number to go out and cover against a UConn team currently on a 13-game NCAA Tournament winning streak. And while this UConn squad is a shell of the squads from the past two years, they still have the capability of making life difficult for Florida.
Notably, UConn grinds out possessions and plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. A typical Florida game has 72 possessions per team, while a typical UConn game has 67 possessions per game, and over their last three games, they have averaged 61 possessions.
So don't be fooled by UConn only averaging 77 points per game because they are 13th in offensive efficiency and 15th in KenPom offensive rating.
But Florida proved against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament finals they can adapt to teams who want to play a slower pace and UConn has three glaring flaws the Gators should be able to take advantage of:
- UConn fouls a ton while also not forcing a bunch of steals.
- The Huskies can't defend the three.
- UConn runs out of size in a hurry.
The third one, in particular, is where this could actually be a comfortable double-digit win for the Gators. After Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed, Alex Karaban is the only other player UConn uses who is at least 6'8".
Alex Condon, in particular, should be the beneficiary of a mismatch, and as long as he is locked in, the Gators should be fine.
9.5 points is a ton, but with the potential for foul trouble and a late surge from the Gators, it feels like a number Todd Golden and crew should be able to reach.