For the first time since 2017, Florida Basketball is in the Elite Eight, with dreams of making the Final Four for the first time since 2014. In their way is Texas Tech, a proud program in their own right who last appeared in the Elite Eight in 2019, when they advanced to the championship game.
All signs point to Florida being the favorite, but what is the key for the Gators to prevail and advance to San Antonio?
Florida Basketball: One More Step
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Florida -6.5 | 157.5 Points | Florida -350 |
Texas Tech is a team that moves the ball extremely well and has an assist on 57% of their made shots. They don't turn the ball over, and they will hurt you from deep if you don't close down on their shooters.
So, while JT Toppin is their headliner, the primary path for the Red Raiders to cause problems for Florida is Chance McMillian and Christian Anderson lighting it up from deep.
The problem for Texas Tech and why the spread is relatively high is that outside of Toppin, they have next to no size that can match up with the Gators. If Toppin gets in any kind of foul trouble, this could be a 20 point win for Florida.
Even if he doesn't get in foul trouble, the issue for the Red Raiders is they are not an elite defensive rebounding team and enter tonight with a lower defensive rebounding percentage than Maryland did. If Toppin has to challenge a shooter, Florida will have massive advantages on the backside to collect 15+ offensive rebounds if they want to.
And combined with the fact that Texas Tech doesn't create turnovers of their own, the pathway for Florida is to take care of the ball, get shots up, and crash the glass as needed.
Florida has the ability to send waves of guys to deal with Toppin, and if they can keep contact with the Red Raider shooters, they should be able to get stops.
For that reason, we are predicting a Gator trip to the Final Four.