After suffering their first defeat of the season on Saturday, Florida Basketball is back at it tonight with the first home game of their SEC slate.
And as will be the case all during conference play, there is minimal room to breathe as the Gators host the number-ranked team in the country, with Tennessee coming to town.
Florida Basketball: Back at it
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Florida (-2.5) | 150 Points | Florida (-155) |
We had mentioned in our prediction of the Kentucky game that it was going to be a race to 90 points given that both teams love to push the tempo.
Tonight in Gainesville, it might be a race to 70 points, as Tennessee is 282nd in the country when it comes to possessions per game. It makes evaluating things like the fact Tennessee is 2nd in the country in points against tough to judge, but there are some other metrics that back up the defensive prowess, including being 2nd in the country in shooting percentage against.
Tennessee is also forcing 14 turnovers a game while opponents are averaging just 8 assists per game. That is also the second-best ratio of opponent assists to turnovers in the country.
But there is one metric that absolutely gives the Gators a pathway to get north of 70 points and to keep pace with Tennessee.
Despite playing one of the slower paces in the country, teams have attempted 27 three-pointers per game against Tennessee. That's 340th in the country. However, teams are only making 24% of their three-pointers against Tennessee, which is the best defensive rate in the country.
The caveat to that statistic is that Tennessee has only faced two squads all year who are in the top 125 for three-point shooting percentage.
It's a long-winded way to state that Florida will have some corner-three opportunities, and this game will come down to the ability to force the Volunteers to respect the three and not just collapse down low. If Florida can force Tennessee to come out of its shell, it will then open up the offensive rebounding the Gators feasted on against Kentucky.
Hopefully, the silly mistakes against Kentucky will be fixed, and combined with the home crowd in Gainesville, we will like Florida's ability to bounce back.