Florida Basketball has shot out to a 13-0 record and is ranked in the top ten in January for the first time in a decade. But while the Gators have played a respectable enough schedule, they have yet to face anyone as challenging as Kentucky during the 2024/25 campaign.
With the SEC opener upon us, what is it going to take for the Gators to get over the hump in Lexington.
Florida Basketball: Who are we? The Wildcats!
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Kentucky (-3) | 166.5 Points | Kentucky -160/Florida +125 |
Florida has played a handful of notable opponents during their non-conference slate, but their overall strength of schedule is 124th in the country. The counter to whether or not one thinks Florida's 13-0 is a mirage is that it's not like the Gators have been squeaking by opponents like they would in the Mike White Era. Florida is 1st in the country in scoring margin, with an average margin of victory of 23.9 points.
Florida is a three-point underdog, but they have been crushing Vegas expectations all season. The Gators are 10-3 against the spread, and despite Vegas trying to set some monster spreads in the last few games, Florida has covered eight games in a row.
Both teams love to push the pace, and this game has the feeling that it could require 90 points to win. Florida's primary challenge is that they Kentucky is the first team they have faced all season with a hint of rim protection, which could require some adjustments Florida hasn't had to make all season.
But there are two key stats that could be the difference to get Florida over the hump.
Florida is in the top five in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, while Kentucky is 133rd in offensive rebounding percentage. On average, Florida is collecting one extra offensive rebound per every ten missed shots. In a game that could have both teams taking 65 shots, that could be six or seven extra offensive rebounds in favor of the Gators.
Add in the fact that Kentucky is 264th in opponent turnovers per game, and there should be a pathway for Florida to get their shots up and get second-chance opportunities.
It has yet to be a bad bet to bet in favor of Florida, so for that reason, we are predicting a Gators victory.