All season long, Florida Basketball has looked at spreads and defied them with ease. At times, it has felt like Vegas keeps pushing the limits on how high of a spread they can set, and Florida keeps beating those odds.
So, entering today's contest against Auburn, the fact the Gators are considered massive underdogs feels like free money. Whether or not Florida is going to actually win is a whole different debate.
Florida Basketball: On The Road Again
Auburn is favored by 8.5 points, which feels like an insane number for a top-ten matchup. While the Tigers are undefeated in SEC play at 9-0, they are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games overall.
The Gators, meanwhile, are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games, and of their three losses, one was by six points, and one was by just one point.
But last Saturday's 20-point drubbing by Tennessee gives pause to think, "What if the Gators' brain freezes again on the road?"
The headliner for Auburn is Johni Broome, but Florida might be one of the few teams in the SEC with a depth of big men to match and at least slow him down.
The problem is Auburn has four other guys on the roster who are also averaging at least 10 points per game. As deep as Florida is compared to the rest of the country, it's not as deep as the Tigers.
So this feels like a game where Florida can keep it close dependent upon if Walter Clayton can knock down some shots. Auburn is solid enough at defensive rebounding but not elite, and the Gators should get some second-chance points to hang around.
Auburn is also prone to foul more than most. But considering free throw shooting for Florida has become a liability, there is no guarantee the Gators will take advantage of those points.
Add in that Auburn gives up the fewest assists per game and that Florida is 204th in assists per made field goal, and Clayton and Alijah Martin are going to have to create and have elite games in order to keep pace.
Florida has the talent to get inside the 8.5 point spread, and this feels like a game that could get tight and stay under the 155.5 point total, but this feels like a game where being on the road is going to create a couple of key moments that don't go Florida's way.
For those reasons, we are predicting: