Prior to the season, we had predicted that Florida would start 6-0 and then hit a three-game losing streak. Four games into the season, we were looking dead on with our 6-0 prediction. Florida is also staring a three-game losing streak in the face.
The one small problem is that our initial three-game losing streak was against Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma, not Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas.
Both scenarios involve Texas, and as the Gators get ready to take on the Longhorns today, one has to wonder if there is another twist or turn in what has already been an unpredictable season.
Florida takes on Texas to snap losing streak
- Spread: Texas -11.5
- Moneyline: Florida +340; Texas -440
- Over/under: 51.5 points
It looks like Tramell Jones is going to wind up getting the start today, at least as of the time of this writing. The simple narrative is that this gives Florida zero shot.
We would counter that Jones is the QB we would have preferred all along.
But whether it is Jones or Aaron Philo, Florida has a bigger problem on its hands today:
Colin Simmons.
The Texas EDGE has 9.5 sacks already this year, and if Florida doesn’t find a way to help right tackle Emeka Ugorji, Simmons could finish with three or more sacks today. Because as much as the defense has been an issue for Florida, its offense has also hit a brick wall because its offensive line has been getting mauled, leaving Jadan Baugh with no room to run.
And this is where we had said prior to the season that even though we thought Jones was the better QB overall, there was a pathway it made sense to start Philo if the offensive line couldn’t hold up long enough to take advantage of the arm strength that Jones has compared to Philo.
So the gambit today is whether or not Florida can hold up just long enough up front to let Jones air it out just enough to force Texas to back up just enough that might give Baugh just enough room.
Simple right?
Of course, on the other side of the ball, the Gators will face a Texas offense that it shut down last year. And as hard as we have been on defense coordinator Brad White, he himself also shut down Texas last year while still at Kentucky. In fact, over the past two seasons since Arch Manning took over as the starting QB, the Longhorns have topped 30 points in just four of their 13 games against Power Four competition.
If you offered Florida fans a deal where Texas “only” scores 28 points today, most would take it. And if this was the first four weeks of the season, most would feel like a 41-28 win for Florida was incoming.
But remember what we said about Colin Simmons?
Final prediction:
- Texas 31
- Florida 20
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