As we have hinted throughout the week, each week in the Jon Sumrall era has been able to answer a slightly different question about the 2026 Gators. This week’s question is whether or not Florida can handle success. After beating Ole Miss, the national media is starting to fully jump on what is possible for the Gators this year.
But trips to Missouri haven’t been kind to Florida in recent years. And there is a reason why today has all the makings of a diabolical trap, like something Jigsaw from the Saw franchise would conjure up.
Florida is looking to avoid a trap against Missouri
- Spread: Florida -5.5
- Moneyline: Florida -205; Missouri +170
- Over/under: 57.5 points
It shows you how far this program has come in just four games under Sumrall that they are even in a position to have a trap game, but one of the real flaws of the previous guy in Gainesville is that on the rare occasion he did have a trap game, he usually fell face first in it.
During his maiden voyage in 2022, The Man in the Black Polo most notable failed against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Looking back, those should have been massive warning signs that his ship was going to sink.
It was a mathematical certainty.
Everything we have seen from Sumrall until this point makes us want to believe that this team is built different, that they will show up in Columbia today on a mission. Once we get beyond the energy levels narrative, the actual X’s and O’s should favor Florida.
Missouri’s defense can be solid in spots, but their missed tackle rate is high, and their pass defense is bottom half in terms of yards per attempt against. The core problem for Missouri is that they are 110th in passing explosive plays against, which means when Florida does connect even remotely down the field, the odds of it going a long way are high.
When we flip the units, we all know Florida’s defense is a liability at times. But as we chronicled this week, Missouri also hasn’t shown an ability to actually drive the ball down the field if they are gaining possession off a punt or kickoff. The Tigers have scored just four TDs against FBS competition when starting a possession off a punt or kickoff this year.
Florida has 16 TDs against FBS competition when starting a drive off a punt or kickoff.
So while this game may be closer than we want to admit, and while there is 100% a pathway for Missouri to win this game, there are just too many data points that would indicate Florida has more ways to win than Missouri.
As long as Florida comes out juiced up and not flat, we like Florida’s chances in this one:
- Florida 38
- Missouri 27
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