![Florida running back Jadan Baugh (13) runs against Campbell during the first half of an NCAA football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 12, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_3000,h_1687/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ReutersImages/mmsport/213/01m2tpw5p5m4q8zmph05.jpg "Florida running back Jadan Baugh (13) runs against Campbell during the first half of an NCAA football game at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 12, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun]")
After opening with FAU and Campbell, Florida fans are finally going to get some answers as to who the Gators truly are for the 2026 season. Today’s game with Auburn has been circled for months as a massive litmus test for Jon Sumrall in his maiden season with the Gators.
And so, even though Florida is favored on the road, what needs to actually be done to bring it all home and push Florida to 3-0 on the season.
Florida takes on Auburn on the road to open SEC play
Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Florida -2.5 | 53.5 Points | Florida -130 |
Beyond the fact that this is just the 2nd time the two teams have played since 2012, the two main storylines for Florida tonight are:
- Is the offense we have seen through two weeks real or a mirage?
- Is Auburn’s roster construction of a bunch of USF players anything to worry about?
On the first front, Florida has done all it can do against weaker competition. Beyond the scoreboard itself, all the advanced metrics would tell you that Florida’s 1st team offense has been cooking under Buster Faulkner. Florida is top 20 in success rate and in offensive PPA, and that’s with the struggles from the 2nd unit against Campbell.
Florida’s offensive line has been respectable enough, and there aren’t alarm bells going off like there were in the spring. They haven’t been perfect, especially in the run game, but this is where Jadan Baugh could win this game by himself if Florida lets him.
But one of the reasons why we have been cautiously optimistic about Florida is that when at full strength, the cache of skill players is simply more than most teams can match. Because, on point number two, Auburn’s roster is essentially just an imported USF team on offense.
Alex Golesh has faced a Power Four opponent seven times since becoming a head coach in 2023. He has scored more than 20 points just once in those seven games. Even last year, USF managed just 18 points. The odds of 18 points being enough tonight are low.
Florida’s defense has its own concerns, and Brad White has a lot to prove, but if the Gators can prevent Auburn QB Byrum Brown from beating them with his legs, history has shown there is a pathway to shut this offense down.
Call it hope or optimism, but every advanced metric hints that Florida has a stronger offense and a stronger roster. So even though this is a road test for the Gators, our prediction is:
- Florida - 31
- Auburn - 20
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