Final odds and predictions for Florida Football against Kentucky

Once upon a time in a not-so-distant land, Kentucky week was merely a checkpoint in the season for Florida Football. The Gators had made this matchup irrelevant, and Wildcat fans had to wait until basketball season to start chirping.

Those days are long gone, as Florida is now 2-4 in their last six games against Big Blue. And even though this particular Kentucky team isn't good, the problem for Billy Napier and crew is neither is Florida.

Florida Football: Who Are We? The Wildcats!

In a vacuum, if one were to say that Kentucky was entering the matchup with a blowout loss to South Carolina and a loss to Vanderbilt already on their resume, Gator fans would hammer the money line and start dreaming of what they would do with the money.

But then Gators fans remember this is a Billy Napier-led team and close the betting app before hitting submit.

There is one fundamental truth that has played out the past two seasons: Mark Stoops eats Napier's base offense alive. It is not an accident that Florida scored 16 points in 2022 and just 14 points in 2023. Stoops has a sound front seven that forces you to make a play to beat them.

Napier's offense of having dudes run routes in isolation hasn't beaten Kentucky.

Shocking, I know.

So when mapping out how many points I think Florida is going to score, there is what they should/could do and then what they probably will do.

Tennessee, for example, has put up 45, 44, and 33 points against Kentucky in the past three seasons. Joe Milton scored 33 points last year against Stoops, but we are supposed to believe DJ Lagway can't?

Well, that's where what Florida will probably do inhibits their ability to score.

But on paper, there is also minimal likelihood that Kentucky can score big points either. Part of that is because they run one of the slowest offenses in the country, and part of it is because Kentucky is one of the most sacked teams in the country.

The end result is even though the over/under of this game is just 42 points, it would be shocking to see this over hit.

Who actually wins is the bigger mystery. Vegas initially had this game as Florida as the one-point favorite. But similar to the UCF game, public money poured in so much against the Gators that the odds are now Kentucky by two points.

It tends to be smart to not go against Vegas, and I have this sneaking suspicion that Florida has just enough playmakers on offense to score just enough points to get over the finish line.

For that reason, we are predicting a Gator win: