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Confidence Meter Check: Ole Miss presents a trap game down the stretch for Florida

Ole Miss will look for revenge against the Gators
ByBenjamin Henderson|
Nov 23, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) celebrates scoring a touchdown with Florida Gators wide receiver Chimere Dike (17) against the Mississippi Rebels during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Nov 23, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) celebrates scoring a touchdown with Florida Gators wide receiver Chimere Dike (17) against the Mississippi Rebels during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Florida's home stretch has the potential to be its easiest stretch of the season, but it also presents plenty of opportunities for a dreaded trap game. To this point in our "Confidence Meter" series, we have only predicted two actual losses for the Gators.

But when Florida travels to Ole Miss in Novemeber, there should be some massive alarm bells that go off even if the Gators would be the favorite as of right now.

As a reminder, here is what we have previously predicted in our "Confidence Meter" series:

  • LIU - 99.9%
  • USF - 90%
  • LSU - 45%
  • Miami - 60%
  • Texas - 20%
  • Texas A&M - 50%
  • Mississippi State - 90%
  • Georgia - 55%
  • Kentucky - 70%

Ole Miss looks for revenge against Florida

Last year, the win against Ole Miss was the defining moment for the Gators. Sure, the win over LSU was nice, but the Tigers were litteraly unranked the following week.

The Rebels, on the other hand, came into Gainesville just needing to beat Florida and Mississippi State that following week to clinch a playoff bid.

Instead, Florida's defensive line put together another gem and DJ Lagway did just enough to keep the ball moving to allow the Gators to seal the win and give Florida the momentum it has enjoyed this offseason.

Confidence Meter vs. Ole Miss - 40%

Call it vibes, call it paranoia, call it being a hater, but this game has all the flashing red lights of a "trap game."

Last year, when Florida beat FSU, it was the first November road win the Gators had pulled off in the Billy Napier Era. In fact, as a whole, Napier is just 4-9 on the road since taking over.

We bring this up because Napier has yet to prove the Gators can be consistent week to week, especially when going on the road.

In the Napier Era, Florida beat Texas A&M and South Carolina only to lose to Vanderbilt. It triumphantly beat Tennessee only to get smashed by Kentucky. And last year, they looked lively against Georgia, only to play the most lifeless game of football ever against Texas.

Add in the subplot drama that is going to be Austin Simmons, the one-time Gator commit who changed his classification from the class of 2025 to 2023 and spurned Florida for Ole Miss in the process, and there are just some vibes that don't feel great with this one.

Should Florida win this game?

Of course it should.

Will they win this?

Only if Napier proves the Gators are actually ready to spot the ball each and every week.

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