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Confidence check: Florida’s odds heading into Baton Rouge

What does the confidence meter look like when Floriad faces LSU?
ByBenjamin Henderson|
Nov 16, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) calls a play against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Nov 16, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) calls a play against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Florida Gators get to open the season with two games they should win easily before the difficulty ramps up for a four-game stretch that could define the season and Billy Napier's long-term fate in Gainesville.

So in continuing with our "Confidence Meter" series, we are going to take a look at Florida's odds heading into its first road game of the season against LSU.

As a reminder, the Confidence Meter is set up so that 50% means the game is truly a coin flip. In our previous two previews, we gave a Confidence Meter of:

  • LIU - 99.9%
  • USF - 90%

Florida takes on LSU to open SEC play

Last year, the win over LSU not only kick-started Florida's four-game winning streak, but it might have saved Billy Napier's job. As much as DJ Lagway was the headliner coming out of that game, what tends to get forgotten is how Florida's defensive line dominated LSU almost out of nowhere.

LSU entered that game with one of the lowest sack percentages in the country, yet Florida exploded for seven sacks.

LSU went heavy in the transfer portal this past offseason, but returning is QB Garrett Nussmeier. Depending on what side of the coin you fall, people either view Nussmeier as a top-three SEC QB and a potential 1st round pick, or they view him as a bust in waiting who is going to sink LSU in 2025.

Confidence Meter - 45%

LSU has had a way over the past decade of being just out of reach, so there was some catharsis when Florida finally beat the Tigers, knocking them out of the playoffs in the process.

The giant question mark hanging over Florida's head is whether they will be ready for a step up in competition. For the first time in the Billy Napier Era, the Gators get to "ease" into the season rather than having to open against a Power Four squad.

On paper, this should allow the Gators to iron out some issues, but we also remember last year when Florida took on Texas A&M in week three, and those issues still weren't fixed.

DJ Lagway should be fine, but this will be just the second time he has started on the road.

If Florida's defensive line can step up once again, the Gators will win this game. If Nussmeier winds up being a top-three QB, then Florida will need to engage in a shootout to win.

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