It's not unfair to have concerns about Jon Sumrall's ability to succeed at Florida. He arrives in Gainesville with an impressive Group of Five resume, but the problem for Florida fans is that they just endured a coach who came to Gainesville with an impressive Group of Five resume.
Those in Sumrall's corner have tried to paint a picture that Sumrall is nothing like Napier. In terms of demeanor and personality, that much is true.
In terms of actual data, well...
Jon Sumrall is similar to Billy Napier, with some slight differences
So let's get the most obvious out of the way:
Jon Sumrall is currently 42-12 as a D1 head coach, while Billy Napier was 41-12 during his time at Louisiana.
Their pathway to those two marks has been different and works in Sumrall's favor. Napier was a "program builder" at Louisiana who had two okay years before having a great 2020 and 2021 campaign to make him the next "it" guy.
Sumrall, meanwhile, took over a Troy program that was 15-19 under Chip Lindsey and immediately turned things around. His time at Tulane gets a little more complicated, considering the Green Wave were 12-2 in 2022 and 11-3 in 2023. The fact that Sumrall went 9-5 in 2024 was a downgrade by program standards, but his ability to rebound to a 10-2 season in 2025 at least shows he has some level of adaptability at multiple places.
It also helps that Sumrall is far more charismatic than Napier and makes one want to run through a brick wall.
But Sumrall's track record also raises the question of why we couldn't just go around the wall in the first place?
The nagging concern with Sumrall is that he is 15-4 in one-score games as a head coach (eight points or fewer). One might go, "Wait, isn't that a sign of someone who manages the game well?"
Sort of, because history would tell you it is not a great indicator to be in that many one-score games at the Group of Five level if you are the "it" guy to make the jump to Power Four.
Billy Napier was 14-3 in one-score games at Louisiana.
If you look up Lane Kiffin's tenure at FAU or Josh Heupel's tenure at UCF prior to making their Power Four jump, both programs were involved in fewer than ten one-score games.
Sumrall's average margin of victory in his 41 wins is 0.7 points better than Napier's from Louisiana. His average margin of defeat is 0.6 points more.
Curt Cignetti's average margin of victory at James Madison, before his rise at Indiana, was 4.3 points better than Sumrall's career average to this point.
What does it mean?
It appears that Sumrall will raise the floor of Florida compared to Napier based on personality alone. But there are very real concerns about his tactical abilities and whether he can adjust to the chess matches in the SEC.
Sumrall's average margin of defeat to ranked opponents is 20.6 points. If you are looking for one positive in this area, Napier's average margin of defeat to ranked opponents while at Louisiana was 23.6 points.
But, much like Napier, the biggest question Sumrall will have to answer is whether he can keep up when teams have equal or better talent.
Part of why people were so high on Lane Kiffin was that he never really had a "talent advantage" at Ole Miss, and the dream was to see what he could do with "equal talent."
Sumrall hasn't proven yet that he can do that. With some better coordinators, could he?
We will have to wait until September to find out.