Last night in The Swamp was a memorable moment for Florida Football. The Gators entered as underdogs and had not beaten LSU since 2018. Add in the backdrop of the loss to Texas the week before, and it was an unexpected moment for many watching around the country.
Florida's win over LSU does hold value, even in a lost season. Just how much value going forward is up for debate.
Why this win meant everything
One can pump that narrative all they want about the players still playing hard for Billy Napier, but at some point, that effort has to turn into actual wins. Otherwise, as we pointed out last week, it implies that if everything goes right, Florida's ceiling will be a close loss against a ranked opponent.
So, to have the players still bought in and to actually pull off a real victory rather than a moral victory is a step forward in this program.
That step forward now creates the following four positive consequences:
- Florida had a ton of top-tier prospects on campus this weekend. We had said earlier in the week the only way to start converting these guys is to win. Dallas Wilson, a five-star wide receiver out of Tampa, is now going to come back and take an official visit to Florida.
- Playing off the recruits, Napier can sell to prospects and to whoever enters the transfer portal a vision of playing alongside DJ Lagway. Combined with some NIL money, there is a pathway for Florida to restock with playmakers heading into 2025.
- Even if Florida loses to Ole Miss, a win over FSU would guarantee a bowl game. No, the Birmingham Bowl is not the endgame goal for the Florida Gators. But if Lagway can ball out against some mid-tier ACC or Big 12 squad, there will at least be a feeling of positive momentum heading into 2025.
- If Florida can go 6-6, for as abysmal as this season has felt at times, it would still give the Gators wins over UCF, Kentucky, LSU, and FSU. Losses to Tennessee, Georgia, and Miami still aren't great, but at least Gator fans aren't completely cannon fodder for everyone around the country.
Why this win means nothing
We here at Hail Florida Hail don't engage a ton on social media because trying to make a nuanced take in 240 characters is impossible. As such, the narrative swing from week to week has been as drastic as ever during the 2024 season.
We have not been shy in our criticism of Billy Napier, and one might say after a win like this, "Benjamin, you are just a hater."
I would counter that one can be happy and excited about beating LSU for the first time since 2018 while still having the following concerns about the program:
- LSU is going to be unranked on Tuesday.
- LSU is just the fourth win Billy Napier has had in three seasons over an FBS team that finished the year with a winning record.
- We had said prior to the season that anything short of 8-4 meant Napier didn't have Florida where it should be by year three of his tenure. At best, he can get to 8-5.
- DJ Lagway throwing deep shots hasn't made us forget this team was completely unprepared for Miami, Texas A&M, and Texas, while Napier single-handedly blew the game against Tennessee.
It may sound like we are just trying to nitpick and be miserable all the time, but in truth, for Napier to prove that anything has changed, he can not come out next week and lay an egg against Ole Miss.
If Florida can pull off the win over the Rebels next week and beat FSU to close out the regular season, we will slowly put our pitchfork down while just making sure we keep an eye on where it is located.