Florida Football: Jimbo Fisher is a warning to the Billy Napier model

Billy Napier’s vision to make Florida football a national contender starts with recruiting. He believes in building a solid foundation with a steady flow of high-level recruits to ensure year-after-year success. It’s the model that Alabama and Georgia have perfected and a big reason why those two will once again play in the SEC Title Game this season.

But another SEC program has strung together four straight top-ten recruiting classes that just spent $75 million to get rid of their coach because it turns out that recruiting by itself doesn’t guarantee success.

Florida Football: Fisher’s Price

In 2019, Texas A&M had the 4th best recruiting class, according to 247. In 2022, they finished number one with an astounding eight five-star prospects signed. 

Yet since Jimbo Fisher took over as the head coach for the Aggies at the start of the 2018 season, the on-field results have not matched the off-field success:

• 2018: 9-4
• 2019: 8-5
• 2020: 9-1
• 2021: 8-4
• 2022: 5-7
• 2023: 6-4

Aggie Nation has seen enough and has ponied up the money to buy out Fisher and move on. For many reasons, Fisher could never translate his high-level recruiting classes into consistent wins. Since 2021, Texas A&M lost eight games where it was the betting favorite. Fisher had a myriad of off-field issues that, at least publically, Napier hasn’t had yet.

But the challenge for Napier going forward, regardless of how this season finishes out, is to articulate to Florida football fans why his model of program building is closer to Alabama and Georgia rather than the false hope Texas A&M got year after year.

Florida is 3-8 in their last 11 games at covering the spread. Yes, actual wins and losses are all that matter in the end. But it indicates that, at least in the eyes of Vegas, Napier isn’t maximizing his current perceived talent. Are top-tier classes going to fix what seems to be ailing Florida?

Maybe they will. Maybe they won’t. Maybe it’s Maybelline.

And that’s the point. Napier is putting together a top recruiting class that he has to have if he wants to ascend to the top.

But if Napier does keep the current 2024 class intact, Fisher is a reminder of why one shouldn’t plan the parade route just yet.

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