Florida Football: Three pathways for the Gators to beat Georgia

Florida football is two-touchdown underdogs to the Georgia Bulldogs. Betting on the money line this game for the Gators to win would be a bold bet because even if one thinks the Bulldogs are vulnerable, it is still going to require everything to go right for the Gators to win.

But what fun is watching a game in hopes that the Gators only cover the spread? None, which is why we here at Hail Florida Hail are going to give three pathways for the Gators to follow to come away with the upset and the biggest win thus far in the Billy Napier Era.

Florida Football: Hold Georgia to under 4.5 yards per rushing attempt

One of the things we are pointed out throughout the season is that while Florida’s defense under Austin Armstrong has been solid on a play-by-play basis, they have struggled to limit the damage on plays are they are successful.

On rushing plays specifically, Florida has the fifth-best success rate in the SEC at stopping running plays on a play-by-play basis. The problem is that Florida is dead last in allowing explosive running plays when a play is successful, and it’s not even close.

On running plays deemed “successful,” Florida is giving up an expected points of 1.33 points per play. The next closest team is Tennessee at 1.18 expected points per successful play, while Texas A&M has a better success rate than Florida and limits the damage to just 0.94 points per successful play.

As we noted yesterday, Georgia isn’t great at generating yards after contact. So if Florida can fill their gaps better than what we saw against South Carolina and Kentucky, there is a pathway to slow down the Bulldogs.

Tre Wilson has over 15 touches

Speaking of explosive plays, this may be a game where Florida has to hop on the Tre Wilson train and see where it takes them.

Georgia is a better tackling team than South Carolina and Vanderbilt, and as we noted earlier this week, the key to getting past the Bulldogs’ defense might be with some explosive plays.

Florida won’t be able to rely on their three yards and a cloud of dust method they leaned on prior to the South Carolina game, and the player most likely to break one free is Wilson.

So even if Georgia bottles up the first couple of attempts to get the ball to Wilson, that doesn’t mean Napier should stop trying. Wilson is capable of breaking a big one, even against a team like Georgia.

Trey Smack is perfect

Ultimately, Florida football will need to score some touchdowns if it wants to win. But there is a pathway one can build where if the Gators can generate just enough offense to get to the 35-yard line each drive, it can generate just enough points through the leg of Trey Smack to win.

Georgia has been prone to some slow starts this season, and if the Gators can put some earlier points up on the board and, by proxy, force Georgia to drive the length of the field, it can “shorten” the game just enough to get to the finish line in time.