Florida Football: Three offensive stats where Gators mirror Georgia

Florida football enters their matchup on Saturday as a two-touchdown underdog to the Georgia Bulldogs. Outside of hope and a prayer, there are not many logical reasons why one should enter into the World’s Largest Cocktail Party with confidence beyond a puncher’s chance.

But diving deeper into the numbers, there are three statistical areas where the Gators offense might just be better than the Bulldogs offense.

Florida Football: Yards after contact

When one thinks of Georgia, one thinks of a physical team that wants to run it down your throat and be more physical than you.

J.D. Pickell of On3 said as much during his preview of the game that after Florida looked vulnerable during the Kentucky game to a team that wants to play bully ball, Georgia should try and do the same.

To Georgia’s credit, they are averaging 5.8 yards per carry, a number that Florida will need to limit if it wants to have a chance on Saturday.

But Florida’s rushing attack is more potent than we give it at times. Trevor Etienne averages 5.9 yards per carry, while Montrell Johnson averages 5.2 yards per carry.

Perhaps more surprising, though, is that Florida is averaging more yards after contact than Georgia. The Bulldogs average 2.8 yards after contact on running plays, while Florida manages 3.3.

In fact, Georgia has the second-fewest yards after contact on rushing attempts in the SEC and is one of only three SEC schools to be averaging under three (Missouri and Vanderbilt being the other two).

So, while the offensive line is opening up holes for the Bulldog running backs to run through, if Shemar James and Scooby Williams can get their reads correct, there is a pathway to stop Georgia in their tracks.

Yards After Catch

The baseline number for this stat favors Georgia, with the Bulldogs averaging 7.0 yards while Florida football is averaging 6.5. But 400 of Georgia’s 1,326 yards after the catch are from Brock Bowers, and he isn’t playing in this game.

Remove Bowers from the stat line, and Georgia’s yards after the catch fall in line with Florida at 6.6 yards after the catch.

Explosive Passing

One of the perceived flaws with Florida’s offense is being able to pump the ball down the field when backed up on third down.

The Gators have the third least explosive passing offensive in the SEC.

The second least explosive is Tennessee.

The team with the least explosive passing offensive in the SEC? None other than the Georgia Bulldogs.

There is a give and take with this, as Georgia also has the highest success rate in the SEC on passing plays.

As a reminder, success rate is:

• It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
• 70% of yards to gain on second down
• 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down

Explosiveness is measured by how many expected points are added when a play is successful.

In Georgia’s case, they have “success” on 55% of their passing plays, but they are only adding an expected 1.3 points each time they are successful.

LSU, by contrast, is having “success” on 54% of their passing plays and is adding an expected 1.7 points per successful passing play.