Florida Football: Gators to start and fade against Vanderbilt on DraftKings

After an entire week of discourse surrounding Florida football and how bad the offense was against Kentucky, it would be fair to want to stay away from any Gator today against Vanderbilt for fantasy football purposes.

But, if you feel like taking a chance today, a couple of Gators could win a tournament-style contest.

We will be looking at the “Afternoon” slate of games on DraftKings, which includes seven total games to pick from:

• Wake Forest vs Clemson
• Virginia Tech vs FSU
• Syracuse vs UNC
• Purdue vs Iowa
• Alabama vs Texas A&M
• UCF vs Kansas

Florida Football: Start or Fade

• Graham Mertz
  • $6,400
  • Last week – 16.6 points
  • RotoWire Projection – 13.9 points

As we said last week, Mertz is a really tough QB to pick for fantasy purposes. Even though he is the 4th cheapest QB available for this slate of games, he has yet to top 20 points this season on DraftKings.

If you really want to convince yourself that this week is the week that Mertz pops off fantasy-wise, Billy Napier has had to hear how his offense is too conservative all week.

And with recruits in the building against an opponent that struggles to defend the pass, one can convince themselves that Mertz is going to take some early deep shots. If he hits a couple of early ones, he might be inclined just to keep taking them.

• Ricky Pearsall
  • $7,400
  • Last week – 15.2 points
  • RotoWire Projection – 14.9 points

If one believes that Mertz will take some deep shots, then one has to come up with who will catch the ball.

The struggle with picking Pearsall isn’t whether or not you think he will put up points, as he has been in double digits in all five games this season. The struggle is that he is the most expensive receiver for this slate of games, and in theory, there are better values out there.

If you are playing 50/50, he is a safe option who has scored between 10 points and 19 points in four of the five games for Florida football.

If you are playing a tournament, you may need to take a bigger chance on someone to get to the top.

• Eugene “Tre” Wilson
  • $5,000
  • Last Week – DNP
  • RotoWire Projection – 10.4 points

Given his price, Wilson is a fantastic value if he plays the entire game.

The problem is that even though he is listed as healthy, it is hard to trust whether or not he plays after what happened last week.

Take Wilson at your own risk

• Andy Jean
  • $3,400
  • Last Week – 7.3 points
  • RotoWire Projection – NA

If you want a sneaky swing for the fences pick, Andy Jean is the one to go with.

With Caleb Douglas out and the uncertainty with Wilson, it is not unreasonable to picture a scenario where Jean gets featured for six catches, 75 yards, and a touchdown.

Given his price, if you want someone with a massive ceiling, he is the one to go with.

Might not recommend him for 50/50, given he also has a bottom-level floor.

• Trevor Etienne
  • $5,400
  • Last Week – 10.7 points
  • RotoWire Projection – 21.7 points

Like last week, Etienne is the one Florida football player that RotoWire likes in their lineup optimizer.

They have him projected for the third most points among running backs this week.

The problem, as we know, the problem is that he is listed as questionable for Vanderbilt, and it isn’t impossible to envision him sitting out this one.

Depending on your tolerance for risk will dictate whether or not you trust Etienne in your lineup. The safe pick would be to look elsewhere.

• Montrell Johnson
  • $5,800
  • Last Week – 12.4 points
  • RotoWire Projection – 14.4 points

Johnson continues to be priced higher than Etienne, but it is hard to put faith in Johnson either.

The one thing that has made Johnson viable for fantasy purposes is that he catches plenty of Mertz dump-offs, allowing him to rack up a bunch of garbage fantasy points.

But if you buy into the above narrative of going deep this game, Johnson may not get as many dump-offs.

• Treyaun Webb
  • $4,300
  • Last Week – 0.2 points
  • RotoWire Projection – NA

This is another swing for the fence pick if you think that Etienne is going to be out.

If Etienne plays, then Webb will probably get no points. But if he doesn’t play, Webb would be the next man up to rotate with Johnson.

It is unlikely that Webb will duplicate his performance against McNeese State, but if he is in the rotation, there is reason to believe he will get at least a couple of goal-line carries to get into the endzone.