Florida football: What does SP+ think of Gators vs Commodores?

Florida football is getting set to host the Vanderbilt Commodores this weekend as they look to improve to 4-2 on the season.

Vegas thinks very highly of the Gators in this one, as the spread is sitting at -18.5 in favor of Florida despite their weak showing last weekend.

But spreads are heavily dictated by where money comes in from after the line is first set, rather than a direct reflection of the two teams on the field.

SP+ rules out gambling numbers. Using their advanced metrics, what do they think about the Gators matchup with Vandy?

Florida football: Take the underdog

SP+ uses a variety of stats and formulas to calculate how many points, better or worse, a team is than the average FBS team.

Through five weeks, the Gators are 8.9 points above average, and Vanderbilt is 4.2 points below average.

What this means is that on a neutral field, we could expect Florida to win by 13.1 points. If you incorporate home-field advantage, which generally adds 2-3 points in favor of the home team, SP+ says that the Gators should be -15.5 to -16 point favorites here.

And yet, 50% of bets are coming in on the Gators to cover -18.5. And even though we’re a Florida Gators site, it’s very hard to justify taking Florida to cover in this spot.

Sure, Vandy is very bad. But Florida hasn’t shown much that makes us confident they can win by 19 or more against an SEC team.

Especially with the news that Trevor Etienne may not go this week with an upper-body injury, it’s hard to say where the offense can go to put up a ton of points.

So if you’re into advanced metrics and the analytical side of football, all signs point towards taking Vanderbilt to cover +18.5 this weekend.

And to be totally honest, despite my blinding bias toward the Gators, it’s hard to argue with that.