Florida Football: Week five confidence meter gets complicated
![Florida Gators wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (1) makes a one-handed catch for a first down during the first half against the Charlotte 49ers at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 23, 2023. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_1080,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape%2Fcover%2Fsport%2Ff4b90fcf32dd1032674a393704db6edb0dc622f92a32009811f1b1928622a179.jpg "Florida Gators wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (1) makes a one-handed catch for a first down during the first half against the Charlotte 49ers at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, September 23, 2023. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]")
Before the start of the season, we rolled out our confidence meter for all 12 Florida football games. Our confidence meter last week was 100%, and it held true to form as the Gators knocked off UNC Charlotte.
While Florida didn’t look great, the game itself was never truly in doubt.
So, as the season progresses, we are going to update our meter to reflect the play of the Gators as well as the play of the teams on their schedule.
As we pointed out in our preseason confidence meter, just because we put a percentage over 50% doesn’t mean that we are betting the house on the Gators winning. It just means if Florida stays clean and avoids the dumb penalties like they took against Utah, we like their chances to win.
Florida Football Confidence Meter Week 5: Kentucky
- Last Season: Kentucky won 26-16
- HFH Confidence Meter Preseason: 40%
- HFH Confidence Meter Last Week: 60%
- HFH Confidence Meter Presently: 55%
We have gone back and forth about Kentucky all season long. When the season started, we didn’t have as much faith that Florida was going to beat Kentucky.
Our confidence has grown due to the fact that even though the Wildcats are 4-0, they have played as soft of a schedule as one could hope for and haven’t looked convincing while beating Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt.
And yet, we are forced to bring down our confidence level this week.
This isn’t a reflection of Kentucky doing anything impressive, it is a reflection of what has knocked off Florida the past two seasons and the warning signs that are looming.
Jason Marshall hasn’t been as lockdown as we would like him to be.
Special teams are becoming a liability for their inability to put eleven players on the field.
Billy Napier’s offense runs unimaginative passing routes that could be read by a solid defense and picked off for a pick-six.
These are all things Kentucky has thrived off of these past two seasons, and this Saturday has all the makings of a game where we think Florida is going to be the better team, but one or two busts could lead to an outcome we don’t want to think about.