Florida Football: Gators have to avoid the one big play vs Kentucky

After 31 years of domination, Florida football can no longer look idly past Kentucky.  Since 2018, The Gators are only 2-3 against the Wildcats. Mark Stoops has taken Big Blue from a football doormat to a mid-level and always competitive program in Lexington.

But when looking back at Florida’s three losses against Kentucky, it has been one big play that has done the Gators in.

Florida Football: Correctable mistakes

We are not going to take the Dan Mullen approach and claim that Florida deserved to win any of these games because of the box score. One could argue it is emblematic of Florida’s recent struggles that the Gators made these mistakes in the first place.

But consider just how close the Gators have been to having a 36-game winning streak heading into this Saturday in Lexington:

• 2018 – Gators lost 27-16. That score is inflated from a last-second fumble returned for a  touchdown on Stanford Band play. So, considering it was 21-16:
  • Terry Wilson hit Lynn Bowden Jr. for a 54-yard touchdown
  • Evan McPherson missed a 36-yard field goal
  • Flip those two plays, and it’s 19-14 Gators
• 2021 – Gators lost 20-13:
  • Florida had a field goal attempt blocked and returned for a touchdown
  • Flip that play, and it’s 16-13 Gators
• 2022 – Gators lost 26-16. The last three came when Florida went for it in their own territory. So it was 23-16 before that:
  • Will Levis hit Dane Key for a 55-yard touchdown
  • Anthony Richardson threw a pick-six on the Kentucky 39.
  • Flip those two plays, and it’s 19-9 Gators

That brings us to this week’s matchup against Kentucky. Many of the same vibes and themes are starting to build for how Kentucky could steal another one from Florida football.

We have written this week about a couple of trends this week that seem to parallel previous years:

• Florida’s defense is outstanding as a whole, but it is prone to giving up big plays on the back end
• Kentucky loves to take deep shots, and even though they are not accurate with them, they throw them with enough frequency that they hit at least one or two deep touchdowns a game
• Special teams for Florida are a ticking time bomb before an opposing coordinator takes advantage of the Gators not sending 11 guys out

As a whole, we like Florida’s chances this Saturday.

But history tells us that the big play will be looming the entire game.

Whether or not Florida can avoid it may dictate whether or not they win the game.