Florida football: Past years have been rough for Gators covering vs UK

Florida football opened as +3 underdogs this week as they travel to Kentucky, but that line has since moved down to right around +1.5.

This implies a lot of confidence in the Gators to be able to go on the road and improve to 2-0 early on in SEC play.

But a quick look at the recent series’ history provides a different viewpoint and one that Billy Napier and the Gators hope to undo this Saturday.

Over the past five years, the Gators are 0-4-1 against the spread when they take on the Kentucky Wildcats.

Florida football: Bad taste in their mouths

Over the past five years, the Gators are 2-3 straight up when they play Kentucky. But each of those years, the Wildcats have performed well enough to cover.

In UK’s three wins, they were underdogs of +6 or more before they won outright. In the two games that the Gators won, they pushed as 24-point favorites in 2020 and failed to cover -10 on the road in 2019.

Another stat of note, four of those last five games have all gone under their total, with the lone over being the game in 2019 the Gators won in Lexington.

With the way that this year’s team is built, a low total seems to favor Florida, at least much more than it did when Kyle Trask and Anthony Richardson were here.

With the spread sitting at +1.5, it seems like covering or not covering is the same as winning or losing.

Yes, college kickers can easily turn this into a one-point game off of a mixed extra point. But that’s a tough cap to make during the week.

So, can the Gators break this streak and finally cover on Saturday? I certainly hope so. Improving to 4-1 and 2-0 in the SEC with a road win would be huge for Napier and this Gators’ team.