Florida football: Gators’ defense needs to improve this one advanced stat

Florida football has had one of the best defenses in the country through four weeks, currently rating fifth in total defense.

But nothing is ever perfect. And the Gators’ defense does have one area they need to improve on if they want this success to be long-term.

When looking at some advanced metrics for this Florida team, there is one section that causes concern for both sides of the ball but is more alarming for Austin Armstrong’s defense.

The Gators are very vulnerable to explosive plays and have a poor EPA when the opposing offense breaks off a big one.

Florida football: High risk, high reward

Austin Armstrong brought an aggressive playstyle to the Gators defense this year and it has been paying off through four games.

But on plays where the defense doesn’t win and the offense has success, things seem to go from bad to worse.

When opposing teams have a successful run play, they add an expected 1.53 points. When they succeed through the air, it adds an expected 1.84 points.

Overall, teams have added and expected 1.7 points on any successful play. For context, a successful play is defined as a first down play where at least 50% of yards to go are gained, second down plays where 70% are gained, and thrid/fourth down where they convert.

The Gators are in the green in almost every other stat, showing that they consistently smother offenses and don’t let them get going. But when they bend, they break.

Just look at the Tennessee game. Pretty much all of the Vols’ points came on a handful of big passing plays rather than methodical drives.

This is not meant to take credit away from Armstrong and the players on defense. They have been outstanding so far this season.

But as Florida starts to play better offenses in the SEC, their susceptibility to big plays could rear its ugly head.