Florida football: ESPN’s FPI has the Gators going 8-4

Florida football is heading into 2023 with rather tempered expectations compared to the program’s standards, with the betting line being 5.5 wins for this fall.

But some metrics are a little higher on the Gators and like them to not only go over that number but blow by it.

ESPN’s FPI gives a percentage chance for teams to win each game they play this fall, and their prediction for the Gators is pretty positive.

In fact, ESPN says that the Gators are going 8-4.

Florida football: Have to win the toss-ups

In four of the eight games that Florida is favored in per ESPN, their win percentage in between 50% and 60%. So those games can really go either way.

If the Gators come through and win those games, we’ll have a great year. But if they stumble and drop them, all of a sudden things get scary.

Here are the Gators’ winning chances in every game this fall. (List via @gatorsszn)

Week 1 @ Utah – 29.7%

Week 2 vs McNeese – 99%

Week 3 vs Tennessee – 51.7%

Week 4 vs Charlotte – 96.3%

Week 5 @ Kentucky – 48.4%

Week 6 vs Vanderbilt – 90.4%

Week 7 @ South Carolina – 58.9%

Week 9 vs Georgia – 13.8%

Week 10 vs Arkansas – 66.2%

Week 11 @ LSU – 18.5%

Week 12 @ Missouri – 58.1%

Week 13 vs FSU– 50.3%

There are a few notable things to look at here. First, the only game where the Gators are slight underdogs is on the road against Kentucky. The other three projected losses are pretty substantial.

So ESPN is only a few ticks away from saying the Gators go 9-3 this fall if everything goes as planned. That would be quite the year for Napier.

The Gators are also favored in two games that a lot of people are afraid could be landslides against Florida, and against teams with playoff hopes in Tennessee and Florida State.

Those two matchups being in The Swamp has a large bearing on these projections and could impact those games a solid amount.

While it’s nice to scroll through this list and see an optimistic prediction for this year, it’s important to note that these numbers don’t mean a thing until the Gators go out and play these games.

But the sky isn’t falling, and anything can happen in college football.