Florida Football: Do cakewalk schedules matter as long as you win?

We all know that Florida football has an absolutely brutal 2024 schedule. With a non-conference slate that will include Miami, UCF, and FSU to go along with a very challenging SEC slate, the Gators have no gimmes, even if their overall level of play improves.

But as CBS Sports reminded us yesterday, Florida also has a brutal 2023 schedule, while a couple of notable rivals do not.

So it begs the question, is a team better off loading up on cupcakes rather than challenging itself?

Florida Football: Have your cake and eat it too

According to Barrett Sallee of CBS Sports, the Gators have the toughest schedule in all of the SEC in 2023. With non-conference games against Utah and FSU, combined with cross-over SEC games against LSU and Arkansas, part of the reason people feel that another 6-6 season is likely is that even if the Gators improve as a team compared to last year, there just are next to no free wins on the schedule.

Georgia meanwhile has UT Martin, Ball State, UAB, and Georgia Tech as their non-conference games. Combined with their two crossover games being against 5-7 Auburn and 8-5 Ole Miss, the Bulldogs have the weakest schedule of anyone in the conference.

Now don’t get it twisted, the Bulldogs are the top dog for a reason, and there isn’t much reason to believe Florida will knock off Georgia this season.

But let’s pretend you swap Florida’s schedule with Georgia’s schedule. Even in a weakened state, Florida would beat all of Georgia’s non-conference opponents. Would like to think they would beat one of Auburn or Ole Miss.

At that point, if Florida were to beat Vanderbilt and Missouri, that alone would get Florida to seven wins.

And considering the Gators should beat one of South Carolina or Kentucky, if not both, Florida could very realistically go 9-3 in 2023 just by having Georgia’s schedule.

Been down this road

From a national narrative perspective of “The sky is falling” if Florida football were to go 6-6 vs “Florida is back on the rise” if they go 9-3, it would be tempting to swap with Georgia if given the chance.

But 9-3 with a garbage schedule defined the 2010s, and nobody was happy. In 2012 the Gators were 11-2, but outside of a win over then-fourth-ranked LSU, Florida didn’t really have many quality wins that season.

In 2015 Florida went 10-4, which included nonconference games again New Mexico State, East Carolina, and FAU.

The schedule in 2019 was a bit better with a nonconference win over Miami and a cross-over win over Auburn, but despite winning the Orange Bowl, most fans had a “meh” feeling because it was over 24th-ranked Virginia.

So the moral is for the next couple of seasons, don’t get caught up in the overall record of the Florida Gators.

Focus on the quality of teams that they do beat and ask yourself if you would rather go 7-5 with six of those wins coming over Power Five opposition or if you would rather go 9-3, but only five of those wins are against the Power Five?

Just remember that when everyone fawns over Mark Stoops going 9-3 year after year at Kentucky.