Florida Gators: Predicting Every Regular Season Game in 2023

Game 10: Florida Gators @ LSU

Last Meeting: LSU 45-35 Florida (2022)

It’s not very often that Florida plays LSU after they play Georgia. It happened in the 2020 COVID season, and before that, it happened in 2016. But the Gators will be doing just that as they will face off against LSU in the third-to-last game of the season in 2023.

LSU is entering season number two under Brian Kelly. Year one went about as well as LSU fans could have imagined. They beat Alabama and won the SEC West before losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

LSU returns two very good quarterbacks in Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier. Running back duo Noah Cain and Josh Williams will both be returning, and two of their three top receiving threats in Malik Neighbors and Taylor Mason. In short, the offense should pick up right where it left off in 2022.

LSU had the 31st-best defense in the country in 2022, and they should be able to hit that mark or better once again. LSU returns enough on defense while bringing in the 5th best recruiting class in the country that includes 5-star EDGE defender Dashawn Womack, 4-star EDGE defender Jaxon Howard, and 4-star safety Javien Toviano, among others.

To my surprise, while doing research for this article, I found out that Florida is 18-17 all-time in Death Valley. That’s a pretty good record considering how tough of an environment that is to play in. But I don’t think Florida football has what it takes to beat this team. If they do lose to Arkansas, I think it takes all of the wind out of their sails, and with the roar of 102,000 fans making it impossible to think, they’ll lose to LSU in convincing fashion.

Prediction: Florida 27-42 LSU

Game 11: Florida Gators @ Missouri

Last Meeting: Missouri 17-24 Florida (2022)

While there’s no argument that Florida is more talented and the bigger brand, Missouri has been Florida football’s bogey team since they joined the SEC in 2012, in their 11 SEC meetings so far, Florida is 6-5. Missouri always seems to beat us when we have something good going. This rivalry also heated up the last few years as in 2020, Dan Mullen would show up to the post-game press conference in a Darth Vader costume before Drinkwitz would pull out a toy lightsaber after beating Florida in 2021 (and getting Dan Mullen fired).

Missouri would go 6-7 in 2022, but QB Brady Cook would have a solid year with 2,739 passing yards (585 rushing yards), 14 passing touchdowns, and 6 rushing touchdowns. Both leading Missouri running backs look set to return, and that will hopefully offset the loss of Dominic Lovett to Georgia. The offense should be decent in 2023 but won’t be anything to write home about.

Missouri’s defense was also very middle-of-the-pack in 2022, coming in at #56 nationally. They bring in a bevy of four-star talent with their 32nd-ranked recruiting class, but even if they those guys do end up playing, they probably won’t have that game-changing impact, at least not in year one.

This game could also be a trap game, considering it’s between LSU and Florida State. But with the recent tensions between Missouri and Florida football and Florida possibly needing a win, they come out and spank the Tigers in The Swamp.

Prediction: Missouri 20-41 Florida

Game 12: Florida Gators vs. Florida State

Last Meeting: Florida 38-45 #16 Florida State (2022)

I’m not going to be THAT Florida football fan that tries to take anything away from Florida State and their 10-win season in 2022. But I would like to point out that there’s a reason a 6-7 Florida football team only lost by a touchdown, ON THE ROAD, to a 10-3 FSU team. The ACC was arguably the worst P5 conference in the country last year. That may or may not change in 2023 but these two teams are closer in talent than people think.

Offensively, Florida State scored 36.1 points/game last season. They return Jordan Travis, who would be a Heisman finalist today if it was up to the media. While they did lose two of their top three receivers, they bring in Hykeem Williams (no. 4 WR) and the 16th-best recruiting class. This offense should have no issues tearing up most ACC defenses week in and week out in 2023.

Defensively, Florida State was 20th nationally, giving up 20.6 points/game. While impressive, Florida State should hardly ever have a bad year in the ACC. They are one of the biggest brands in the conference (alongside Miami and Clemson) and can out recruit and out talent almost everybody in the conference. They did give up 156.4 yards/game on the ground, and if that trend continues, Florida football could have a field day in 2023.

For as close as this game was in 2022, I expect UF’s defense to want revenge. On top of the improvement we should see in the defense, this has to be a game both sides of the ball show up.  If the offense can hold onto the ball and keep the ball out of Jordan Travis’ hands as much as possible, and the defense shows up when needed, Florida will beat Florida State at home in 2023.

Prediction: Florida State 28-38 Florida

Final Regular Season Record: 7-5

I’m not going to sit here and say that 7-5 is good for the Gators. It would be a minimal improvement over their 6-6 record in 2022. But this is Billy Napier’s second season, and he doesn’t have all of his guys yet. Billy Napier’s biggest problem is we now know who Florida football will play in 2024 and it might be the toughest schedule in the country.

Billy Napier does not have time on his side. 2023 needs to be an improvement over 2022, and he needs to raise his recruiting to another level as well. Hopefully, I’m wrong, and the Gators break out this year. But if they don’t, Billy Napier’s seat could be warm entering 2024, and with a schedule like that, it could be a short-lived era in Gainesville.

What do you guys think? Does Florida football win more games? Do they miss out on a bowl entirely?