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Florida basketball: Florida vs Kentucky odds breakdown, betting tips

By Will Thomas

Feb 18, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Florida Gators guard Riley Kugel (24) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks guards Anthony Black (0) and Jordan Walsh (13) during the first half at Bud Walton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 18, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Florida Gators guard Riley Kugel (24) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks guards Anthony Black (0) and Jordan Walsh (13) during the first half at Bud Walton Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports /
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Florida basketball, after the loss of Colin Castleton and a loss to Arkansas, are in need of a big win to gain some momentum. They have a chance to get revenge in a big spot tonight against the Kentucky Wildcats.

A few weeks ago, the Gators went to Rupp Arena and lost by 5. At the time, the teams seemed pretty evenly matched, so it felt like the Gatord would be home favorites when the rematch rolled around.

Castleton’s injury changes that.

Without their big man, the Gators opened up as 3.5-point underdogs, and are getting less than 20% of the bets tonight.

Despite all the tickets coming in on Kentucky, something weird is happening: The line is going down.

Florida basketball: Line movement is a reason for optimism

Early this morning, the Gators were +3.5 underdogs to Kentucky, with lots of bets coming in on the Wildcats. As time has gone on, there has been some reverse line movement, and the spread is down to +2.5 despite 85% of bets being on Kentucky.

For frequent sports bettors, this is the green light to bet Florida. Sure, the Gators may not have a guy who can match up with Tshiebwe anymore and planet earth is on Kentucky.

But that’s why college basketball is so fun to bet on. Even when it makes no sense, home teams just find a way to cover the spread, especially in rivalry games or big spots.

If this line keeps moving down to around +1.5 or +1, then be a little warier. But as long as you’re getting a bucket, taking the Gators is a scary but good play.

The total opened up at 140.5 and hasn’t moved at all, with 49% of bets on the over, and 51% on the under.

The previous game between these two had a total of 132.5 and the game went over, hitting 139. So here’s what the books are thinking with this line.

The Gators shot the ball horribly at Arkansas. Coming home, that will improve. More points.

Florida is without Castleton, leaving Tshiebwe going against backup centers all night in the paint. More points.

I like the over here, even though Florida loves going under in their games. The spread is more of a toss-up, but I’ll let my blinding bias for UF make my pick for me.

Predictions: Florida +2.5, over 140.5.

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