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Florida basketball: Gators double-digit favorites at home against Rebels

By Will Thomas

Florida guard Will Richard (5) and forward Colin Castleton (12) celebrated an and-one as the Florida Gators and Kentucky Wildcats faced off in Rupp Arena on Saturday evening. Kentucky defeated Florida 72-67. Feb. 4, 2023Jf Uk Fla Aj6t4671
Florida guard Will Richard (5) and forward Colin Castleton (12) celebrated an and-one as the Florida Gators and Kentucky Wildcats faced off in Rupp Arena on Saturday evening. Kentucky defeated Florida 72-67. Feb. 4, 2023Jf Uk Fla Aj6t4671 /
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Florida basketball is coming off of a terrible home loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores that put them in a deep hole to climb out of if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

Despite that loss and the negative momentum, the Gators still find themselves as big favorites tonight against Ole Miss.

Part of it is that the Gators can’t possibly play as badly as they did against Vandy again in this one. Right?

But the other part is that Ole Miss is just not any good, especially on the road where they’re 2-6 straight up, and 0-11 as the underdog.

So maybe the big number isn’t totally offbeat after all.

Florida basketball: People love to overreact to what they just saw

In the betting world, two things are certain. First, you will always lose in the long run on the spread, and second, people will overreact strongly to the last game they just saw.

61% of the bets on this game are coming in for Ole Miss to cover +9.5 or +10, based on where you look. If this game was after Florida beat Tennessee, UF would have way too many bets on them and this number would be out at 13 or 14.

But because it’s coming after a bad loss, Ole Miss is getting the bets and the line is down near 10.

Not to mention that the line has moved further out to -10 with the bets in favor of the Rebels. Be wary and don’t fall into the trap. As the morning continues we’re seeing more bets come in on UF, so this number may go up a half point or a full point by tip.

It may be hard to trust Florida right now given the way they’ve played, but that Vandy game was a wake-up call. They’ll take care of business at home from now on.

Looking at the total, it currently sits at 138 or 137.5, with just 16% of the bets on the over.

It isn’t always a good idea, but it’s the smart move to bet with the public here. The Gators played in an 88-80 game on Saturday. Where did all that scoring come from?

That’s not how Florida games go. It was a fluke. We’ll see that regress back down to a game in the 60s and 70s tonight, which would favor the under.

Predictions:

Gators -9.5, under 138.

Lines may change before the game starts.

Keep up with Florida basketball at Hail Florida Hail.

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