Florida basketball: Confidence meter for the next four games

Feb 4, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Florida Gators guard Will Richard (5) defends against Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) during the first half at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 4, 2023; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Florida Gators guard Will Richard (5) defends against Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) during the first half at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports /
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ESPN FPI Confidence: Gators 19% chance to win

Hail Florida Hail Confidence: Gators 30% chance to win

This is undoubtedly the hardest game left on Florida basketball’s schedule. Arkansas hasn’t been as good as they had hoped this season, but Eric Musselman always has his guys playing hard, and they proved they can still win tough games with their win in Rupp Arena.

Part of why I think the odds that Florida wins this game are so low is because it’s a reflection of the current state of both teams. Arky with a big road win, Florida going 1-3 over their last four.

By no means do I think the Gators are underdogs of any less than four when the spread comes out, but the odds will slightly shift in Florida’s favor over the next week and a half.

The Gators will still be a desperate team when they head to Arkansas, which can sometimes be problematic as a road team. You start taking bad shots and being over-aggressive without your home crowd to back you up.

But I think the two wins before this game (hopefully) will help to settle Florida down and help them get back to their brand of basketball. Play elite defense, run your offense through the paint, and win a close game in the final minutes.

If the Gators are able to win this game, it will do wonders for their tourney chances. It will extend their win streak to three, prove they can win in hostile environments, and give this team the confidence that they can beat anybody for the rest of the year.