Florida basketball: Betting lines and predictions for Florida vs Alabama
By Will Thomas
Florida basketball has finally reached the end of its four-game gauntlet as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight in Tuscaloosa.
On paper, this is the biggest mismatch that the Gators have faced over this four-game stretch, and the betting lines reflect that as well.
We’ll get into the lines in a minute, but first, it’s important to note that this is by far the toughest game left on Florida’s schedule. The Gators still have to go play Arkansas in Fayetteville, but this Alabama team poses a much bigger threat.
Even if Florida can’t pull off the upset tonight, there are plenty of opportunities for wins as we get closer to March.
Now, let’s get into the lines.
Florida basketball: Money coming in on the Gators
Yesterday, the spread opened up at -9.5 in favor of Alabama. As of this morning, however, that was down to -8.5, with 56% of the bets backing Florida. You. may find some books with the line still at +9, but it’s still shifting in Florida’s favor.
At first glance, this number looks to be pretty accurate. Florida is a hard team to blow out because of their great defense. Even though their offense can’t go out and score 80-85 every night, they keep themselves in every game.
One thing I found interesting when I was looking at the lines for this game was the total. It’s currently at 147.5 or 148 depending on where you look.
I found it interesting because that total implies that Florida doesn’t keep this game with 8 or 9. Can Florida really go on the road and score 70 against a top-three team in the country?
In the Gators’ last four road games, they’ve scored 67, 50, 61, and 52. And those weren’t in environments like Bama, and against a team like Bama.
This means that betting the spread and total go hand in hand. If you like the Gators to cover, you like the under. If you think Bama runs away with it, take the over.
In my past predictions, I’ve liked the Gators and the under, and it’s done pretty well for me. Tonight, however, I think I have to go the other way. Teams tend to run out of gas when they get to the end of a tough stretch of games.
As if going on the road to a top-three team isn’t hard enough, the Gators have had to empty the tank in each of their last three games.
I hope I’m wrong, but I doubt the Gators can keep pace with the Tide, and I don’t think they can slow them down for 40 minutes.
Prediction:
Alabama -8.5, over 147.5.
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