Florida basketball: Betting lines and predictions for Florida vs Kentucky
By Will Thomas
Florida basketball is on the road tonight taking on a Kentucky Wildcats team that has started to find its rhythm after a rocky start to the season.
Aside from the challenge that the Wildcats pose to the Gators, they’re also walking into a tough environment. Rupp Arena is always rocking, and a Saturday night game against Florida will only amplify the sound in that place.
There is some good news for the Gators, however, as despite all of these factors seemingly favoring Kentucky, the spread is pretty tight.
Can the Gators win another game outright as an underdog?
Florida basketball: Oddsmakers predict a close game
The spread for this game opened up at Kentucky -3.5, but as of 9:00 this morning, it’s out to -4.5 or -5 depending on where you look.
At the time I’m writing this, 71% of the bets coming in are on Kentucky, but it’s been trending more toward Florida as today has gone on.
The numbers support the Gators here. Florida is 5-3 against the spread on the road and 4-3 as an underdog. Kentucky is just 6-8 against the number at home and 8-10 as the favorite.
The total is a little more unclear. It’s set at 135.5 at the time I’m writing this, but it’s hard to get a read on which direction to go.
The under is 7-1 in Gator road games and 6-1 in games where UF is the underdog. But on the other side, the over is 9-5 in Kentucky home games and 12-6 when the Wildcats are favored.
In Florida’s last ten games, the over is 2-8, while it’s 7-3 in Kentucky’s last ten.
One glimpse of clarity does come when you look at the last few games these teams have played against each other. The under has hit in the last four matchups between Florida and Kentucky.
If you want to bet on this game, my best play would be the under. Florida on the road has struggled offensively, and they play a slow game. Also, the Gator defense seems to have found something in that game against Tennessee, so Kentucky likely won’t light it up.
Betting on the spread is trickier. If the line was still at that -3.5 it opened up at, Kentucky would be an auto-play. Sadly, the books don’t like losing money. Weird.
In the time I’ve been writing this, FanDuel has inflated the line out to -5.5 despite more tickets coming in on the Gators. This implies that despite the Gators earning more bets, the bigger money is still on Kentucky’s side.
My read on this is that we’ll have a low-scoring game where buckets are at a premium, especially in the second half.
I don’t think either team will win this game by six or more. But, I don’t see a path to a Gator win as clearly as I did against Tennessee, solely because of the environment.
The Gators likely won’t leave victorious, but I think they cover 5.5.
Predictions:
Under 135.5, Gators +5.5.
Happy watching Gator fans, and bet responsibly.
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