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Florida Basketball: Preview by numbers for Gators vs Bobcats in Tampa

By Benjamin Henderson

Nov 18, 2022; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2022; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Center. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports /
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Florida basketball is in Tampa tonight to take on the Ohio Bobcats on ESPN 2. The tip-off is at 7 PM. The Gators enter the contest 6-4, while Ohio is 5-4.

Florida Basketball: Preview by numbers

KenPom Ratings

Final. 190th. 2253. 55th. 526

The Gators enter this game as the clear favorites. Vegas has Florida favored by 13.5 points. Under Todd Golden, Florida has handled business against the weaker teams on their schedule. Even the loss to FAU isn’t as terrible right now as FAU is 48th in these ratings.

Defensive Efficiency

272th. 2253. 92nd. 526. Final

Big reason why the Gators should be favored in this game is Ohio’s inability to stop anyone on defense. When you glance at the final scores for Ohio, most of their score lines involve opponents reaching 70+ points, but only twice has it gone over 80.

Florida basketball averages 73.9 possessions per game. Ohio themselves tend to play a slower game and are 218th in the country with 70 possessions per game. So if we average the two out (since both teams tonight will have even possessions), we can expect 72 possessions tonight.

So it may not seem eyepopping that Ohio is giving up 1.04 points per possession, but over the course of 72 possessions, the Gators should expect to score at least 75 points tonight. On the flip side, Florida’s defense gives up 0.94 points per possession. That would get Ohio to 67 points tonight.

But the Vegas line is 13.5, and 75-67 gets Florida the win but not the cover.

This leads to one final stat that should bring Florida home tonight

Block Percentage

2253. 9th. 526. Final. 284th

Florida and Ohio actually have their shots blocked at some of the worst rates in the country. Both teams have 6.3% of their shots blocked, which is 236th in the country. But at 284th, Ohio is not a shot blocking threat.

The Gators however return the favor, thanks to Colin Castleton, and are 9th in the country by blocking 10.1% of opponent’s shots.

Translation: Ohio already has an issues getting shots blocked and they are going against one of the top shot blocking teams in the country.

So, either Castleton will end the night with 20 points and five blocks, or Ohio is going to resort to outside shooting all night. They are a respectable enough top 100 squad at 36% shooting from three and they attempt 25 threes per game (59th).

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