Florida Football: Confidence meter for last four Gator games

Sep 17, 2022; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) runs with the ball against the South Florida Bulls during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 17, 2022; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) runs with the ball against the South Florida Bulls during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Florida Football: We’re here to play school

ESPN FPI – Florida favored with 77% confidence

Hail Florida Hail – Florida favored with 95% confidence

Vanderbilt started the season out 3-1 before figuring out what they were doing right and corrected it. The Commadores were blown out in three straight games before a feisty loss to Missouri.

Given the history of this series and the state of Vanderbilt, ESPN’s 77% still feels too low. Yes we know Vanderbilt finds a way here and there to be a thorn in Florida’s side for about a half and the game will be played in dreary conditions in front of a half empty stadium (with the other half with by Gator fans).

This game also has a bit of a trap element to it with FSU looming ahead just six days later.

For those reasons, we are going to stay away from 100% confidence. But there are zero, and I mean zero, excuses Billy Napier can come up with for why Florida football would lose even with the current state of the Gators.