Florida football: Billy Napier’s all-in strategy nearly pays off

There is a really obnoxious car commercial on air right now where a bike instructor is screaming at his clients “Do you want some more?!?!” Florida football head coach Billy Napier took that message to heart on Saturday and reminded fans that scared money doesn’t make money.

It may not have been great for the heart rate of Gator fans, but Napier’s all-in strategy is what gave Florida a chance in the first place.

Florida football: That was a crazy game of poker

It is easy to nitpick at Napier and say that Florida football left five points on the field by going for it rather than kicking it (field goal on the first drive and going for two twice). If you are in that camp you are ignoring that three of the Gators’ touchdown drives came after Napier opted to go for it on fourth down.

If we want to do some rough math here, two of the touchdowns had the option of a field goal on fourth down, reducing the added value of those two touchdowns to an additional four points. So 4 + 4 + 7 = 15 and if we subtract out the five points lost the Gators still came out net positive with 10 additional points by going for it on fourth down rather than kicking.

The truth is Florida football didn’t lose this game because of Napier going for it and having it backfire, they lost ultimately off three plays:

• Trey Dean gets completely blows his coverage assignment. Not sure if he flexed afterwards.
• At the end of the first half, Brenton Cox nearly sacks Hooker on 3rd-and-10. Tennessee gets a first down instead and on the next play the Tennessee receiver makes a full extension grab to set the Volunteers up.
• Anthony Richardson’s fumble in the redzone

The Trey Dean bust was inexcusable and was easy for everyone to see coming even before the ball was snapped.

Some Gators fans questioned why Napier took a timeout before the 3rd-and-10 and the answer is simple; if Florida gets a stop on that play then the Gators get the ball near midfield with over a minute left to take a double digit lead into half-time.

The Richardson fumble also came on a drive when Florida went for it in their own territory on fourth down, and it would be unfair to chastise Richardson after he threw for 453 yards and ran for 62 more.

Florida football: No answer for Hooker’s running

Beyond those three plays, the real problem was that Florida’s defense simply had no answer for Hendon Hooker running with the ball. We said in our preview that Tennessee’s hopes on offense depend on his running ability. Hooker threw for 349 yards himself, 114 of which came on the previously mentioned Dean bust and fully extended catch.

The Gators did a decent job against the two Tennessee running backs. Jabari Small had 90 yards rushing, but it took him 19 carries to get there for an average per carry of 4.7 yards. Jaylen Wright had 10 carries for 25 yards. That’s a win for Florida football, especially after being gashed by USF last week.

And If it was just the passing yards on every other drive and the running backs being held to a combined 3.9 yards per carry, Florida had a pathway to survive that. But Hooker ran for 112 yards on 13 attempts. On five on Tennessee’s six scoring drives, Hooker ran for a first down or a touchdown at some point during the drive.

The Gators will rue the missed chances. And while Florida did cover the spread after it seemed like no one was giving them a chance, the Gators aren’t in it for moral victories. Billy Napier may have caused some hair loss during this game, but a safer strategy would have ensured a blow out from Tennessee.