When Is It Time To Panic About Recruiting?

When Billy Napier took over from Dan Mullen, most Gator fans were hopeful that the move would spark a massive uptick in recruiting. Napier added LSU defensive backs coach, and ace recruiter, Corey Raymond to his staff. The Florida Gators have had far more four and five star recruits show interest in Florida in one summer under Napier than they ever did under Mullen.

Then four star QB Jaden Rashada pushed back his commitment date after looking like a lock for Florida. And five star CB AJ Harris, after it appeared at one point that Florida was the frontrunner, chose to commit to Georgia.

And so in the words of Taylor Swift, some Florida Gators fans have started to say “I think I’ve seen this film before, and I didn’t like the ending.”

How Much Does Recruiting Matter?

Recruiting matters, but recruiting by itself doesn’t win anything.

Since 2017, University of Southern California have had three top ten recruiting classes.

They haven’t won more than eight games since 2018.

Texas had the third ranked class in 2018 and 2019. They were also eighth in 2020.

News alert, Texas isn’t back.

Texas A&M has had top ten classes in six of the last ten seasons.

The Aggies haven’t topped ten wins since 2012 and have only finished ranked in the AP poll twice since 2014.

For a program to be successful, it not only has to recruit but it also has to be able to develop those recruits.

To put this in perspective in the world of track and field, at the recent New Balance Outdoor Track and Field National Championships for high school, it took 10.58 seconds in the 100 meter dash to qualify for finals and be considered one of the top prep sprinters in the country.

10.58 would have finished 17th at the SEC Championships this year and scored zero points.

The difference between Alabama and Georgia compared to Texas and Southern Cal in their current states is that Nick Saban and Kirby Smart are also developing their high end talent.

But What About Florida?

Make no mistake about it, a team still has to have higher end talent to be competitive even if they are the best developers in the world. A team full of WRs that run a 5.0 40 stand very little chance against a group of 4.5 40 CBs no matter how well coached they are. A 250 DE is going to struggle to move a 330 pound OT no matter how good their technique is.

But if you have a squad of WRs running 4.6 and 280 pound DEs, you have a better chance to compensate. And under Mullen, Florida showed it had the ability to overcome some of these talent gaps against the likes of Georgia, LSU and Alabama.

Where Florida failed and ultimately couldn’t get over the hump under Mullen is when their talent stopped developing.

Emory Jones was a four star QB, but never did develop to make a second read with any consistency. Florida’s secondary never looked like they knew how to play zone. Florida’s O-line took eight false start penalties vs Kentucky.

That’s a development issue over a talent issue. So when incoming talent doesn’t know how to do anything new compared to what they were asked to do in high school, a coach is then forced to stick with high school level play calling.

Against Vanderbilt a team can get away with basic play calling when the talent is better. Against Georgia it turns into a bloodbath.

But Seriously, When Is It Time To Panic About Recruiting?

The Florida Gators missed out on AJ Harris. But since 2016, Florida has only signed two five-star recruits. No one recruit by themselves is going to alter the course of your entire program.

Florida has a far greater commitment towards recruiting than they did under Mullen though. As Florida winds up on the radar of more and more recruits, there is greater room for hope but also greater room for disappointment.

In the age of NIL, Florida hasn’t indicated it is willing to play ball at a level needed to be a top five class consistently.

But Florida had top ten classes in 2019 and 2020 even with Mullen’s lackluster effort. And if Napier runs a better in house program than what Mullen did, Florida can still win a national title with top 10 classes.

Mullen was a thrown shoe and a defensive coordinator who knew a play call besides “Engage Eight” away from winning a title in 2020.

Would starting off with higher rated talent be nice?

Sure.

But until it is shown how Napier utilizes talent, no matter the caliber, it is not time to panic about recruiting.

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