Florida Gators: Bowl preview vs UCF

Well folks, it’s here the Florida mega bowl. Winner takes home the state championship. The Florida Gators match up with their in-state rivals the Central Florida Knights.

The Gators head into this game with a 3-0 record over teams located in Florida (USF, FSU, FAU) and are looking to make it a perfect 4-0. That also puts them at a 3-6 record against teams not located in Florida…..ouch.

What to know about UCF

The Knights have really no impressive wins on the resume for the year. Two decent wins you could say, they beat Boise State week 1 and won a defensive struggle over East Carolina. They have a pretty bad loss to Navy who finished out the year with a 4-8 record. Gus Malzahn was a big hire for the Knights during the offseason, however the Knights have become accustomed to 10-win seasons as of late, so an 8-4 season for UCF seems like a big step backwards.

This isn’t the same Central Florida team that we’ve seen the last few years. In years prior the Knights were built off a heavy passing attack but also could provide a solid running game as well. In 2021 UCF passed for just over 2500 yards, that’s 1000 yards less than they passed for in 2020. Part of this was losing starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel to a fractured clavicle in their third game of the season. Freshman Mikey Keene has filled in for him since then, and has put up solid numbers, but not the one’s the Knights are custom to seeing out of Gabriel.

Central Florida has had a good running attack this season, amassing over 2200 yards on the ground so far, while gaining a healthy 5.3 yards per carry. They rank 32nd in the nation with 188.7 rushing yards per game. They’ve been using a series of different ball carriers this season with Johnny Richardson having the most success at nearly 7 yards per carry.

Defensively it’s been an up and down season for UCF. In 7 of their 8 victories they managed to hold their opponents under 17 points. During losses the Knights have allowed an average of 40 points a game.

UCF’s numbers match up surprisingly close to the Gators when you compare their defenses. Both teams are relatively stingy defending the pass as the Gators rank 34th and UCF ranks 41st. Stopping the run has been a problem for both of these teams however, as Florida sits at 70th against the run and UCF is pulling right up behind at 71st.

Gator notes

• Emory Jones will be the starting quarterback for the game. He announced he is transferring from Florida after the bowl game. Anthony Richardson  aggravated his knee injury in the Gators victory over Florida State, will not play against UCF.
• DE Zach Carter will sit out the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft.
• Coach Greg Knox will lead the Gators one more time.
• DB Kaiir Elam is expected to play in the game as of now. Elam is expected to declare for the draft.
• This is just the third all-time meeting between the UCF Knights and Florida Gators. The Gators are 2-0 vs the Knights. Their last matchup was during the Gators championship season in 2006, Florida won 42-0.
• The Gators enter this bowl game with a 24-22 all-time mark in bowl games

Gator 3 keys to the game

1. Run the Ball. It would be inexcusable not to, you know UCF has trouble with the run and you have several options at running back and a mobile quarterback. Emory Jones has struggled mightily down the stretch, don’t put the game in his hands unless you have a big deficit.
2. Get Dameon Pierce involved in the game. He has been underused for years in Dan Mullen’s offense. Pierce has the highest grade of power-5 running backs according to Pro Football Focus. He should get at least 20 touches in this game, it is likely his last game in the orange and blue and he is arguably your best offensive player right now.
3. Contain the run. As stated earlier UCF has relied on the run game a lot as their passing game isn’t what it once was. Kaair Elam should be able to limit the Knights number 1 option pretty easily. Stop the run game and the Gators should have a victory.

Prediction

Florida Gators 31, Central Florida Knights 20

We’re going Gators here, I know big shocker. The team seems to have some energy back since they moved on from Dan Mullen, I expect it to carry over with the in-state opponent again. The Gators have superior talent and it should show. If this was the UCF Knights of last season with Dillon Gabriel shredding to compliment a strong running game it would be different. I don’t think this team could beat the 2020 UCF team, but it is 2021.

I actually expect Emory Jones to play a strong last game for the Gators. I’m not sure if he will play the entire game or if they will try and see how some of the backup quarterbacks will fair. The Gators running back core should have a successful game against a relatively poor UCF run defense.

I don’t like the betting line for the game, I think Florida wins but I am uneasy about a cover for the Gators.