Florida football: Realistic and crazy playoff scenarios for the Gators

Florida football is one of 13 teams with playoff hopes, however slim, intact. But, what will it take to get them in the mix?

Oddly enough, despite being ranked No. 11 in the latest polls, Florida football still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoffs.

I know, crazy, right?

It’s a long shot, but we have hung our Gator Nation hopes on much less, so while there’s a sliver of hope, we continue to believe Florida football can be there in the end.

On top of playing at a flawless level down the stretch, Florida football need a few miracles to occur to get into the playoffs. Let’s throw this Hail Mary!

Here’s what has to happen in the SEC for Florida football to have a chance:

• Auburn causes the league to descend into chaos by knocking off Georgia and Alabama down the stretch. Georgia loses to Texas A&M next week. This would leave UGA at 5-3 in the SEC (thank you, Will Muschamp!) and clear the way for the 6-2 Gators to represent the SEC East in Atlanta. If Texas A&M comes through for a second time (thank you, Jimbo Fisher!) and knocks off LSU to finish the regular season, Florida football would be in a position to hand LSU a second loss for the league title. This would allow the Gators to leapfrog the Tigers for a playoff spot as the SEC Champion. Eliminated from playoff contention under this scenario: No. 1 LSU, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Alabama, and Florida would hold an SEC title and a head-to-head win over Auburn to eliminate the No. 12 Tigers from contention.

Here’s what needs to happen on a national level for this scenario to begin to unfold:

• Big Ten: Iowa beats Minnesota this weekend; Wisconsin wins out and beats Minnesota next weekend, clinching the Big Ten West; Ohio State beats Penn State, but loses to Michigan and to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. Eliminated from playoff contention under this scenario: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 8 Minnesota, and No. 9 Penn State.
• Big 12: Oklahoma beats Baylor in the regular season, loses to Oklahoma State, and beats Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game. Baylor loses to both Oklahoma and Texas in the next two weeks. Eliminated from playoff contention under this scenario: No.10 Oklahoma and No.13 Baylor.
• Pac-12: Oregon or Utah drop another regular-season game and the two-loss team wins the Pac-12 Championship Game. Should Utah lose another game, it could lose out on a spot as the South’s representative to USC. Eliminated from playoff contention under this scenario: No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Utah.
• ACC: If the Tigers lose in the ACC Championship Game, a two-loss SEC Champion Florida football team would have a strong argument as the more deserving team in the playoff discussion. Even under this crazy scenario, it’s difficult to imagine a world where Clemson drops more than one game before the end of the season. That’s the ACC in 2019.

Now that I’ve lined out the difficult path for Florida football, here are the playoff scenarios for teams in the hunt.

Playoff front-runners

No. 1 LSU: Burrow and the Tigers aced their biggest test of the season in Tuscaloosa. If LSU wins out, they will be the clear cut top-ranked team in the playoffs. Texas A&M is the only real threat between LSU and a perfect regular season. Remaining games: at Ole Miss, vs Arkansas, vs Texas A&M, SEC Championship Game (likely vs Georgia)*.

No. 2 Ohio State: An OSU-Clemson matchup is looking more likely. The Buckeyes offense has yet to be tamed and should help Ohio State cruise through the Big Ten and into a playoff spot. Remaining games: at Rutgers, vs Penn State, at Michigan, Big Ten Championship Game (likely vs Minnesota)*.

No. 3 Clemson: Wake Forest and South Carolina stand in the way of another perfect season for Dabo Swinney and an overlooked Tigers team. Clemson is a long-shot for the top spot in the rankings at this point, but the Tigers match up well against any team in the nation. Remaining games: vs Wake Forest, at South Carolina, ACC Championship Game (likely vs Virginia)*.

No. 4 Georgia: Though all of the focus is on a tough road trip to Auburn this weekend, the Bulldogs have a sneaky tough home finale against Texas A&M next week. Jump through these two hoops and the Bulldogs can safely turn their focus to stopping the high-flying LSU offense in Atlanta. Remaining games: at Auburn, vs Texas A&M, at Georgia Tech, SEC Championship Game (likely vs LSU)*.

In full control of their own destiny

No. 8 Minnesota: An undefeated, Big Ten Champion Gophers would replace Ohio State in the playoff pool should they win out. Remaining games: at Iowa, at Northwestern, vs Wisconsin, Big Ten Championship Game (likely vs Ohio State)*.

No. 13 Baylor: The Bears winning out would be bad news for a second SEC team hoping to land a playoff bid. As an undefeated, conference champion with two wins over Oklahoma, I don’t see an issue with Baylor earning a playoff spot should they win out. Remaining games: vs Oklahoma, vs Texas, at Kansas, Big 12 Championship Game (likely vs Oklahoma)*.

A little help, here

No. 5 Alabama: Even if Tide wins out, they can be undone by a strong finish from conference champion in the Big 12 or Pac-12 should the top three teams hold serve. Best case scenario would be to see LSU win the SEC, Ohio State to knock off Penn State and win the Big Ten, Oklahoma to knock off Baylor this week and lose the Big 12 title game, Oregon or Utah drop one before winning the Pac-12 championship. Remaining games: at Mississippi State, vs Western Carolina, at Auburn.

No. 6 Oregon: The Ducks should be able to finish strong with a relatively weak schedule down the stretch. If Utah can get out of the South with one-loss, it would help Oregon’s cause to knock off a top-10 opponent in a conference title game. An Auburn win in the Iron Bowl would not only remove Alabama from the playoff conversation, but it would bolster the resume of the Ducks’ only loss of the season. Remaining games: vs Arizona, at Arizona State, vs Oregon State, Pac-12 Championship Game (likely vs Utah)*.

No. 7 Utah: A hard-fought win in a tough road environment at Washington put Utah in a great position to lock up the Pac-12 South. Since stubbing their toe at USC on a Friday night in September, the Utes have been on a roll. If Utah takes care of business and tops the Ducks in the conference title game, they’ll have a strong case for a playoff spot. Remaining games: vs UCLA, at Arizona, vs Colorado, Pac-12 Championship Game (likely vs Oregon)*.

No. 9 Penn State: Despite last week’s loss in Minneapolis, the Lions can make some noise in the next few weeks. In two weeks, Penn State travels to Ohio State and can win the Big Ten East if they can walk away with a victory in The Horseshoe. A dream scenario for Penn State would be a rematch with unbeaten Minnesota in Indianapolis. If the Lions can take down two unbeatens in their final three games, the playoff committee would take notice. Remaining games: vs Indiana, at Ohio State, vs Rutgers, Big Ten Championship Game (likely vs Minnesota)*.

No. 10 Oklahoma: The Sooners are hanging on by a thread, but there’s still some hope. Convincing wins against three ranked teams, including a second win against Baylor or Texas in the conference championship game, could be enough to a catapult Oklahoma in the playoff mix. Remaining games: at Baylor, vs TCU, at Oklahoma State, Big 12 Championship Game (likely vs Baylor or Texas)*.

If you thought the Florida scenario was exhausting, catch your breath before wrapping your mind around Auburn’s road to a playoff spot.

No. 12 Auburn: The Tigers are more likely to play spoiler down the stretch, but, much like the Gators, there is a wild scenario that could play out and put Auburn in the playoff conversation.

Auburn would benefit from the same national scenario outlined for Florida above.

Here’s the wild scenario which Gus Malzahn’s team needs to see within the conference:

SEC:

Before we can get the bus moving, LSU must trip up and not make it to Atlanta. This would require LSU losing its final three games to Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.

Pointless to go on right? Let’s try…On top of the LSU losses, Auburn soundly defeats Georgia and Alabama in the next few weeks, knocking both teams out of playoff contention. Florida goes down to Missouri or Florida State, sticking the Gators with a third loss. LSU’s downfall clears the way for Auburn to represent the West in Atlanta against two-loss Georgia. Auburn dominates Georgia for a second time and finishes as the two-loss SEC Champion.

Eliminated from playoff contention under this scenario: No. 1 LSU, No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 Alabama, and No.11 Florida.

Remember, it all starts this weekend as No. 11 Florida football will kick-off at Missouri against the Tigers at noon Saturday.