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Florida football: Where will the Gators go bowling?

By Nick Knudsen

GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 09: Kyle Pitts #84 of the Florida Gators celebrates a touchdown during the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on November 09, 2019 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 09: Kyle Pitts #84 of the Florida Gators celebrates a touchdown during the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on November 09, 2019 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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As the season comes to a close, Florida football is will likely end up in one of five destinations for the holidays.

It’s getting to be that time when we take a serious look at possible landing spots for No. 11 Florida football in the coming bowl season.

With that, here’s some good guesses:

Allstate Sugar Bowl – January 1, 2020, at 8:45 PM ET

SEC vs Big 12

Florida’s Last Sugar Bowl Appearance: January 2, 2013, L 33-23 vs Louisville

How Florida ends up in New Orleans:

  • Florida football wins out
  • Georgia wins out in the regular season
  • LSU wins out in the regular season and beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
  • Alabama makes the playoffs
    • The Sugar Bowl featured a Georgia-Texas last season and would likely take a new SEC team
      • Unbeaten LSU and one-loss Alabama to playoff
      • Two-loss Georgia to Orange Bowl

Top-3 Most Likely Opponents: 

  1. Oklahoma – The Sooners are still the favorites to win the Big 12. If they can make a clean run through the rest of the schedule and win with some style points, Lincoln Riley’s team would be in the thick of the playoff conversation, but if they were left out, New Orleans would be the landing spot.
  2. Baylor – Several close wins against mid-level Big 12 teams have provided Baylor’s doubters with plenty of fuel. The Bears have overcome every challenge, but the next two weeks will feature matchups with Oklahoma and Texas. Split the difference and the Bears go to the Big 12 title game likely locking in a New Year’s Six bowl bid.
  3. Texas – An Oklahoma win over Baylor this weekend will put the Longhorns back in control of their own Big 12 destiny. If the Horns knock of Baylor in two weeks and top Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, Tom Herman’s group could end up back in the Big Easy for New Year’s Day.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl – December 28, 2019, at 12:00 PM ET

Florida’s Last Cotton Bowl Appearance: The Gators have never appeared in a Cotton Bowl

How Florida football ends up in Dallas: 

  • Florida wins out
  • Georgia and LSU win out; LSU beats Georgia in SEC Championship
  • Alabama wins out but does not make the playoff
    • Unbeaten LSU to the playoff
    • Two-loss Georgia to Orange
    • One-loss Alabama to Sugar
    • Note: The Cotton Bowl is set to take the top-ranked Group of Five team

Top-3 Most Likely Opponents: 

  1. Cincinnati – Outside of a trip to Columbus, Luke Fickell‘s Bearcats have been a steady force en route to overcoming the UCF juggernaut. The Bearcats are in control of the AAC East and a win over Memphis at the Liberty Bowl in the final week of the regular season could spoil the Tigers’ bid for an AAC West title.
  2. Memphis – Big wins over SMU and Navy have Memphis in control of their own destiny in the AAC West. Should the Tigers win out, they’ll face Cincinnati in both the final week of the regular season and again the AAC title game. Win out and the Tigers will be bowling in Dallas.
  3. Boise State – The Broncos are no stranger to New Year’s Six bowl games and wouldn’t be intimidated by a big stage against the Gators. If the AAC decides to knock each other out, Boise State would be poised to step in as the Group of Five representative should the Broncos win out.

Capital One Orange Bowl – December 30, 2019, at 8:00 PM ET

ACC vs SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame

Florida’s Last Orange Bowl Appearance: January 2, 2002, W 56-23 vs Maryland

How Florida ends up in Miami:

  • Florida football wins out
  • Georgia and Alabama lose to Auburn
  • LSU wins out and beats Georgia in SEC Championship Game
    • Unbeaten LSU to the playoff
    • Two-loss Alabama to the Sugar Bowl
    • Three-loss Georgia to the Citrus or Outback Bowl

Potential Opponent: 

  1. Virginia – If the Cavs win out against Liberty and Virginia Tech, they may serve as the Coastal division sacrifice to Clemson in the ACC title game, but a trip to Miami should be within grasp.
  2. Clemson – The Tigers are likely headed for the playoff, but an upset against Wake Forest, a South Carolina team that topped Georgia, or in the ACC title game would send a disappointed Clemson team to South Beach for the holidays. Anyone else dreaming of a Florida-Clemson Orange Bowl?
  3. Wake Forest – The Demon Deacons will likely fall off the Orange Bowl radar if they lose this week’s game at Clemson. However, if Wake can top the Tigers and closeout against Duke, they’ll put themselves in a position to snag an at-large Orange Bowl bid. Clemson would need to bounce back in the ACC title game and sneak into the playoffs for this to be a real possibility.

Combining the next two bowls since they offer the same combination of opponents:

Citrus Bowl – January 1, 2020 at 1:00 PM ET

SEC vs Big Ten or ACC

Outback Bowl – January 1, 2020 at 1:00 PM ET

SEC vs Big Ten

Florida’s Last Citrus Bowl Appearance: January 1, 2016, L 41-7 vs Michigan

Florida’s Last Outback Bowl Appearance: January 1, 2017, W 30-3 vs Iowa

How Florida ends up in Orlando or Tampa:

  • Florida loses to Missouri or Florida State

OR

  • Florida football wins out
  • LSU and Georgia wins out in regular season; winner takes a playoff spot
  • Second SEC team left out of playoffs: Loser of SEC title and Alabama
    • If Georgia wins SEC:
      • LSU to Sugar
      • Alabama to Orange
    • If LSU wins SEC:
      • Alabama to Sugar
      • Georgia to Orange
  • Cotton Bowl takes another team over Florida football for at-large bid; contenders:
    • Two-loss Oregon or Utah out of the Pac 12
    • One-loss Baylor

Potential Opponent:

  • Wisconsin – Even if Wisconsin can win out and find a way into the Big Ten title game, it’ll face an Ohio State team that ripped the Badgers a few weeks back in Columbus. With three losses, Wisconsin would likely be knocked out of the New Year’s Six mix.
  • Penn State – The Lions face an upstart Indiana team and a trip to Columbus next Saturday before wrapping up with Rutgers. Should Penn State win out and take the Big Ten title, they would have a strong argument for a playoff spot. However, after last week’s porous defensive effort, it’s hard to imagine the Nittany Lions having any real shot at the playoffs, but there’s still a chance. If Penn State plays closer to what we’ve seen on the year, expect James Franklin‘s group to end up in Tampa or Orlando.

    • Minnesota –

    A win over Iowa or Wisconsin will give the Gophers an inside track a Big Ten West title and a trip to Pasadena for the first time since 1962. If Minnesota can’t clinch the Big Ten West, the Citrus or Outback will pick up the upstart Gophers.

    Next. 3 keys for the Gators to beat Missouri Saturday. dark

    No. 11 Florida will kick-off against Missouri in Columbia at noon Saturday.

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