Florida football: Gators scouting report vs. Georgia

Georgia has had Florida’s number in the past two years. What can Florida football do to stay competitive and possibly win?

The Florida football run defense is not good and it will hurt them against Georgia.

While shutting down two FCS rush attacks plus Tennessee’s has propped up its overall numbers, Florida has really struggled against the better running backs that it has faced.

Also, those running backs performed better against Florida than their average against Power Five competition.

Let’s break it down:

• Miami’s DeeJay Dallas ran for 8.5 YPC behind a young and inept offensive line.
• Kentucky’s Kavosiey Smoke ran for 5 YPC.
• LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 10.3 YPC.
• South Carolina’s Tavien Feaster ran for 7 YPC.

Each of those running backs ran for over one YPC more against Florida than they did against their Power Five opponents overall. As an exception, Auburn’s JaTarvious Whitlow averaged 4.5 YPC.

Not only does Georgia boast one of the nation’s best run-blocking units based on advanced metrics, but it features a premier talent in D’Andre Swift.  With his elusiveness in open space and strength in between the tackles, Swift averages 6.8 YPC.

Stopping the run would be critical for Florida because it would force Georgia into third-and-long situations — into those obvious passing downs that are optimal for the opposing pass rush.

Florida Gators Football

Florida’s pass rush is the strength of its defense. The Gators need to get a lot of pressure on Fromm because we already saw what happens when Florida’s defense isn’t piling up sacks when LSU gashed Florida for 42 points on 47 plays. Georgia’s offense obviously isn’t near LSU’s in potency. But it also won’t need close to 42 points to win.

Georgia can evade Florida’s strength by, one, creating third-and-manageable situations and, two, by having good pass protection. Georgia is stacked at the tackle position with an All-American left tackle in Andrew Thomas and a former five-star recruit in right tackle Isaiah Wilson who isn’t far behind Thomas.

Public criticism of Georgia’s offense is generally pointed at the Bulldogs’ pass attack. Keep an eye out for Lawrence Cager, the big 6-5 target whom his team sorely missed in the second half against South Carolina. He led the team with five receptions, 82 yards, and a touchdown against Notre Dame and he is Fromm’s favorite target. Cager returned to practice on Monday and should play.

Overall, Georgia has a higher offensive rating than Florida, (25th to Florida’s 37th)  for all the talk of the Bulldogs’ weakness on offense and Cager will help Georgia provide some balance.

On the other side, Florida will want to produce some semblance of a rush attack in order to provide offensive balance and be less predictable.

But Georgia boasts one of the nation’s top run defenses. The featured running backs of South Carolina and Kentucky did nothing against Georgia. Against an Irish rush attack that features a strong and experienced cohort of bullies blocking for its running backs, Georgia held Notre Dame’s leading rusher to 21 yards on nine carries.

Florida’s inexperienced and rebuilding offensive line still has a ways to go. The Gators have lately been producing one big run per game. Overall, though, the efficiency of Florida’s rush attack is limited by one of the lowest-ranked run blocking units in terms of advanced metrics.

That leaves a heavy burden on Florida’s pass attack which will contend with a deep Georgia secondary that features two of the conference’s top safeties, a lockdown cornerback in Eric Stokes, and that ranks fourth nationally in opposing passer rating.

My Bet

I think it’s too much to ask of Florida to stay within a touchdown of Georgia. The Bulldogs have a huge match-up edge offensively with their ground attack.

On the other side, Florida is, again, outmatched in the trenches and will burden its pass attack with a tremendous task without having a ground game to rely on for support.

My bet is on Georgia -6.5.

Betting Record: 6-2