Florida football: how to bet Week 3 at Kentucky

Oddsmakers currently have Florida football favored by as many as 8.5 points. My recommendation is to bet on Kentucky +8.5 in anticipation of a one-score game.

Betting Record: 1-1

Injuries will play a key role in this match-up, but not in the way that most people seem to think. Yes, Kentucky lost its starting quarterback.

But Sawyer Smith is no slouch. After Terry Wilson got injured, Smith came off the bench against Eastern Michigan to complete five of nine passes for 76 yards, including his first pass for 54 yards.

Smith has a strong arm with deep-passing accuracy. While he may not be able to beat Terry Wilson in a foot race, his athleticism is a forgotten feature.

Last year with Troy, he had two runs of over 50 yards, including one against Nebraska. So, Kentucky won’t need to ditch the quarterback runs and RPO.

Florida Gators Football

In terms of Kentucky’s passing game, the big worry is C.J. Henderson. Henderson is Florida’s top corner and one of the nation’s top corners. But he’s been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ with an ankle injury.

Henderson was going to cover Kentucky’s top receiver Lynn Bowden. Bowden was a four-star prospect who received offers from top-flight schools like Michigan as he was graded as one of the best athletes in his class. He’s an electric playmaker who led UK in receptions (67) and yards (745).

Against Florida, he caught four passes for 79 yards and a decisive touchdown. On the season, he also returned two punts for a touchdown.

Amidst the narrative that Benny Snell’s departure should be catastrophic for Kentucky’s offense, two Wildcats who get overlooked are running backs Kavosiey Smoke and Asim Rose. Rose had some positive flashes as Snell’s backup last year, like when he ran for 47 yards on nine carries against what was a top-five Mississippi State run defense in terms of opposing YPC.

Smoke is also a constant big-play threat. He’s averaging 9.8 YPC in three career games against Louisville, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan.

The talent in Kentucky’s backfield appears to supersede both running backs’ three-star prospect ratings. These backs, together with an experienced offensive line that’s been receiving marks of distinction from PFF, will give Florida’s run defense its stiffest challenge yet. Last year, the Gators ranked 52nd in opposing YPC.

Looking at Florida’s offense, I don’t see any advantage. Feleipe Franks‘ current stat line belies how bad he’s been at making accurate throws and good reads. A big part of his yardage total in the opener against Miami came from a short pass that Kadarius Toney ran with for a 66-yard touchdown.

Toney was Franks’ biggest playmaker and he allowed Coach Mullen to be more innovative offensively with jet sweeps and the like. His injury-induced inability to play against Kentucky will be huge because he’s been the only playmaker in an experienced Florida receiving crew that’s consistently lackluster against SEC competition.

Franks could have leaned on Toney to help him turn things around against Kentucky, which, under Mark Stoops, has had Franks’ number.

In 2017, Florida was down 24-14 in the third quarter until Franks got injured. Only his backup led Florida to victory. Last year, Kentucky won 27-16 while keeping Franks from completing even half of his passes. In his career, the Franks-led Gators are 0-2 ATS against Kentucky.

In two seasons as the starter, Franks has led Florida to road victories against Florida State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. In the one noteworthy victory, Florida only scored 13 points as Franks was super conservative.

It’s important to note Franks’ shortcomings because he may have to play a big offensive role in order for Florida just to win in Kentucky, let alone cover.

Florida’s rebuilding offensive line that returned 24 starts has struggled both against Miami and even, until later in the game, against Tennessee-Martin to find much push or general execution.

Florida’s run game doesn’t appear to be ready for stronger and better conditioned SEC competition.