Florida football: How to bet the season opener vs Miami

Oddsmakers set the spread of Florida football vs. Miami at 7.5 and the over/under has already dropped over a field goal from the opening total of 50.5 points. I recommend betting Miami +7.5.

When deciding whether to back a favorite, I look for something that clearly separates that favorite from its opponent.

I don’t perceive any edge with Florida that would justify a touchdown spread. The biggest thing that will keep Florida from beating Miami by more than a touchdown will be the Gator offense.

Some of the hype I’ve seen directed towards Florida’s current offense seems absurd to me.

Crucial to Franks’ late-season uptick in performance last year was the extra comfort and time that he had to make plays in the pocket or on the run. On the one side, his final opponents ranked 80th or worse in total defense plus an unmotivated Michigan squad that sat out key players.

On the other side, his offensive line gelled, having benefited from the 112 career starts with which they entered the season.

This year, though, Florida’s offensive line will have to rebuild almost completely after four offensive linemen departed.

Let’s look at Saturday’s starters and their experience:

• Left Tackle Stone Forsythe: 109 snaps in 2018.
• Left Guard Brett Heggie: 389 snaps in 2017.
• Center Nick Buchanan is the O-line’s lone returning starter.
• Right Guard Chris Bleich: Appeared in four zero-pressure games (against Charleston Southern, Colorado State, Idaho, Michigan) as a back-up while redshirting last year.
• Right Tackle Jean Delance: 45 snaps in 2018.

Given the rebuilding state of Florida’s offensive line, the question for Franks is whether he can move the offense without being able to enjoy much comfort in the pocket. He has offered zero indication of this ability. According to PFF, last year, he completed 26% of his passes for 4.4 YPA under pressure.

Looking at Miami, the Hurricanes under Manny Diaz regularly boast one of the nation’s best pass rushes. Last year, PFF graded Miami as the nation’s fifth-best pass-rushing team and this year’s rendition could be even better.

Florida Gators Football

As a whole, the defensive line is characterized by the solid depth at every position. One key individual will be defensive end, Jonathan Garvin.  The nation’s 10th-highest strong-side defensive end recruit in 2017, he broke out last year to amass 5.5 sacks plus 11.5 tackles for loss.

The linebacking crew returns its trio of rising four-year starters which Shaquille Quarterman led with six sacks. Michael Pinckney had 21 quarterback pressures, one more than Quarterman.

A resilient Florida football fan may still point to the advantage in the experience that Florida’s receiving crew will enjoy against Miami’s secondary.

But Franks’ problems behind Miami’s pass rush will keep them from exploiting any qualitative advantage. Along with Franks, Florida’s receivers were essentially absent against stronger defenses. Van Jefferson, the team yardage leader, only eclipsed 50 against Michigan, Florida State, Vanderbilt, and Colorado State.

Trevon Grimes, the receiving crew’s most popular source of optimism, exceeded 50 against Florida State, Idaho, and Charleston Southern. The depth and experience are there, yes, but no proven ability against decent competition!

I will concede that Miami’s own offense will suffer the same problems — after all, the Hurricanes will introduce a new quarterback, two freshmen tackles, and a new offensive system — granted, one that is compatible with Miami’s current tight-end-friendly personnel.

But all that tells me is that Miami is pretty equal to Florida. We have two limping offenses that will struggle against stout defenses and yet the spread implies, far from approximate equality, a touchdown-plus difference between the teams.

You might ask why I don’t take the “under.” The total is too low for me. Miami’s turnover chain could contribute to an “over,” as could occasional big plays from the explosive Jeff Thomas for Miami and Kadarius Toney for Florida. Both offenses will try to counteract the blitz by throwing short passes and setting up those playmakers for big-play opportunities in space.

So, bottom line, both offenses will struggle for efficiency. Though favored, Florida doesn’t really have the tools to separate itself from Miami and that’s why you should back Miami ATS.