Florida football: Here’s why the 2019 Power Index isn’t right

Numbers and statistics are great. For a sports and stats nerd like myself, I tend to live in that space. In fact, Florida football, along with every other football program in the country use statistics and other numerical data to help drive strategy.

Okay, I’ll be honest … I’m a numbers nerd.

I love stories rooted in statistical analysis and other data points. I just love to see that.

However, there are instances when data can get in the way of basic human analysis.

Take the 2019 ESPN Power Index.

In it, the number-crunchers at ESPN have decided the Florida football team will be 8-4 at the end of the season — 8.3-4.0 to be precise.

Florida Gators Football

The Gators have a 0.2% chance of winning out their entire slate and a 6.8% shot at winning the Southeastern Conference this season.

As some of my English friends would say … bollocks.

Now, let me start with a bit of a breakdown of each game, according to ESPN’s analysis. They have — using some kind of algorithm — worked out the percent chance of a positive result for the Gators in each contest.

Non-conference

As you might expect, the Gators have a 99.5% chance of beating Tennessee-Martin on Sept. 7 and a 99.1% chance to beat Towson at Ben Hill Griffin, three weeks later.

Florida football also has a 73.4% chance of beating Miami in the kickoff game of the season in Orlando.

So, realistically, there are three wins.

On the road

The Gators have Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina and Missouri on the road this season.

According to ESPN’s data, Florida is a statistical favorite in every game but Oct. 12 at Baton Rouge.

Okay, I will give you the percentages against LSU because Baton Rouge is not an easy place to play and Ed Orgeron has a very strong team in the bayou.

Florida is a 73.2% favorite to beat Kentucky in Lexington and I would take that.

Yes, I know Kentucky beat us, 27-16 last year at home, but the Wildcats are rebuilding, at best, this season, so I think a win is likely. Plus, after 31 years of dominance snapped last season, the Gators would like to start a new streak. No time like the present, er, Sept. 14.

Remember this:

I don’t even know what to say about only having 57.7% positive odds to beat the Gamecocks on Columbia. Really?

It’s Will Muschamp … that alone should give the Gators’ odds a 20-point boost.

Then, there’s Missouri.

Yeah, not a fan of playing in Columbia, Mo. The Gators dropped a 38-17 decision to the Tigers at home last season and I just don’t like the travel to the hinterlands of central Missouri.

That said, I think the Gators will take care of business in Columbia this year — both Columbia’s that is.

So, by my count, that is 6-1.

At home

Not too surprising, Florida football is favored in every game played at Ben Hill Griffin.

The caveat is they aren’t favored in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against Georgia in Jacksonville. They are actually given just a 36.8% chance of winning that game on Nov. 2.

Speaking of Georgia-Florida, I’ll just leave this right here:

But, Tennessee (69%), Auburn (61%), Vanderbilt (88.5%) and Florida State (74.1%) are well outside any potential margin of error.

So, let’s figure the Gators lose to Georgia, but beat everyone else at home. That makes the final record for the Gators, 10-2.

But, wait, why is the system wrong?

I know what you’re thinking: That is pretty close to what the ESPN index predicted, so how is it wrong.

You forget about the outside interferences like injuries, superstition and just good ole’ fashion luck.

Let’s look at last season, for example.

No. 5 LSU was expected to come into the Swamp and trounce No. 22 Florida in October. However, the Gators pulled out a 27-19 upset.

In case you need a reminder:

The preceding year, the unranked Tigers knocked off No. 21 Florida, 17-16 in Gainesville.

What about Kentucky?

No one really gave the Wildcats a chance to beat Florida, especially in the Gators’ backyard.

But, that is just what they did.

Despite getting 232 yards in the air from Feleipe Franks, Kentucky stopped the Gators when it counted. But, again, there was no expectation that Kentucky would snap a 31-game losing streak to the Gators that night.

It is those kinds of things I am talking about.

Who’s to say that Florida doesn’t go to Baton Rouge to face and injury-riddled LSU and beat the pants off them? Or, Jake Fromm has an off game and the Gators take advantage and rip Georgia in Jacksonville?

Now, there are ways that go against the Gators too, but that is really my point.

Statistics are great and they are fun for nerds like me, but they don’t necessarily tell the whole story.

Just temper yourself before you go all-in on stats when setting those season expectations.

Realistically, as of right now, I can see the Gators going 10-2, beating a team like Georgia, but losing to a team like South Carolina.

But, that’s just me and it’s subject to change.