Week 13 Prediction: Florida Gators VS Florida State Seminoles

Week 13 Prediction:
Florida Gators VS Florida State Seminoles
Bobby Bowden Field
Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, FL)

The emotional week of the season is here for the Florida Gators. I don’t need to go on and on about this one. You know what this week means, you know how important that it is, and you know how much excitement is in the air. There’s always so much on the line when these two finally meet up at the end of the season. No matter the circumstances, these two schools do not like each other and there’s no doubt that this will get chippy.

Just to touch on the hostility that lies between these two— Urban Meyer wouldn’t even allow his team to eat at any restaurants in Tallahassee. Meyer’s Gators would eat in Gainesville on Thursday prior to departing and then only at the team hotel and the meals were specifically prepared by UF cooks and chefs. This tactic was to ensure player safety and that there wasn’t any poisoning of their foods.

As far as the present goes and where we are now heading into Saturday— there are many streaks on the line in the latest chapter between the Gators and the ‘Noles. Streaks that the Gators will try desperately to end— like their current 5-game skid to their hated rivals; along with FSU’s national-long bowl appearance streak which currently sits at 36. Florida State is sitting at 5-6 after squeaking out a win last week against Boston College. It’s only fitting that the Gators can be the team to spoil the Seminoles holiday plans this season. But, they still gotta do it.

Moreover, the magnitude of this game is insurmountable when it comes to pride and program dominance. Not only has FSU won all but one game over this decade, but they haven’t had much of a problem at all in handling Florida with relative ease. Florida State has beaten Florida by an average of 19 points in each of their 7 wins since 2010. In fact, the only game that Florida actually kept the score closer than a 14-point margin was in 2014 when UF fell just short by 5. 2012 was the only exception, when the Will Muschamp-led Gators took out the ‘Noles in Tallahassee. Other than that, and every year since then, this has been a game that Florida has collapsed in and Florida State’s flourished and then marched with the Gator head high above their heads far too often. This is the statement game that Florida needs to prove that they have officially arrived under Dan Mullen, and a win on enemy turf against a program that has owned the Sunshine State this decade would reverse that thought. Florida will showcase that they’re once again the head bully on the block with a win over FSU on Saturday afternoon. Objectively, UF should indeed win this game and defeat their rivals for the first time since that 2012 matchup, but the only thing about any of this is— prove it.

There hasn’t been much trash talk coming from the Florida side this week heading into the showdown. The Gators have taken the humble route and have said all of the right things to the media. After all, what can anyone possibly say at this point. Florida is smart to use that approach and needs do their talking on the field.

Florida is going to have to disrupt Florida State’s porous offensive line and attack Deondre Francois all day. Francois can sling it and shred coverages if he has the time, and he’s done it to Florida before the last time they were in Tallahassee. FSU’s offensive line is clearly the weak point of their team and one of UF’s strengths is their athletic defensive line pressuring opposing quarterbacks. That has to be a glaring trait in this game in order for Florida to win. If Francois can be effective and hit passes with consistency all afternoon, then Florida is in trouble. And with the way we’ve seen Florida miss assignments and get discombobulated defensively at times this season, that’s certainly a possibility.

Francois’ favorite receiver is clearly Nyqwan Murray, who leads the Seminoles in yards and receptions on the season. But Francois also will look to find Tamorrion Terry and his 6’5 frame, especially in red zone situations. Terry leads the Seminoles and the ACC with 8 TD catches. Terry, Murray, and D.J. Matthews all will be involved in the passing game, and frankly this is one of the better receiving corps that UF will have seen this season.

Florida also has to be sound in gap protection because Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick are not only chain movers, but sensational talents that the Seminoles have at their disposal. Now, I know that both Akers and Patrick haven’t had the type of seasons that FSU had hoped for and expected, but these are certainly two capable backs.

Let’s not act like Florida’s offense doesn’t have their own problems either. I know that Feleipe Franks boasted a career-high in passing yards last week but come on now— that was against Idaho. But believe it or not though— Franks could have another breakout performance this week against FSU. I get that’s real lofty considering Franks’ ongoing struggles, but FSU’s secondary has been scorched this season and this is their weakness defensively. Currently Florida State ranks 117th in the country in pass defense— giving up 270-yards per game, allowing nearly 13-yards per completion, and have given up 27 TD’s through the air. But the Seminoles have been opportunistic over the last two weeks on the back-end— sporting four picks in their last two games.

The surreal Brian Burns is a monster at defensive end and has to be accounted for on any and all offensive plays. Burns leads the Seminoles and is 2nd in the ACC in sacks with 10, Hamsah Nasirildeen leads the team in tackles with 81 from his safety position, and freshman corner Stanford Samuels Jr. is their interception leader with 4.

It seems that this is a weekly trend, but the key to this game lies in the trenches and UF’s sole ability to get Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlet established from the forefront. FSU is allowing 135-yards per game and has given up 11 TD’s total to opponents on the ground, which is basically 1 each game. Florida features one of the strongest rushing attacks that FSU has seen this season, and that includes the likes of Clemson and Notre Dame. When Florida has been great this season, they’ve rushed the football with force and ran through defenses, but when UF hasn’t been as strong it’s came from a lack of a running game. There’s more to it than just that too— the Gators have to be the more physical team and win this game in the trenches. Florida has downright struggled this season when they’ve lost the physical battle up front.

There’s no denying the obvious talent that the ‘Noles have on both sides of the football, and that’s what makes this game worrisome if the Gators don’t bring it on Saturday. But conversely, I fully expect the Florida Gators to be ready to go against their bitter rivals.

Prediction:

On paper, Florida should have their way with Florida State. But I just have to see it to believe it at this point and until the Gators actually do it, then it’s nothing more than a mirage. Luckily, Florida doesn’t need any motivation for this one and I look for the Gators to fight hungry and play nasty against the ‘Noles and with a chip on their shoulder. Florida plays sound football and executes at a high level, and these Gators get the pleasure of ending the agonizing streak that’s been hanging over their heads and furthermore, prevent the hated “team out west” from going to a bowl game for the first time since 1981. Florida walks into Doak Campbell and turns the page to a new era of their own in one of college football’s biggest rivalries.

Florida 34
Florida State 17