Week 10 Prediction: Florida Gators vs. Missouri Tigers

It’s homecomeing week for the Florida Gators, and Missouri may be a tough matchup in The Swamp.

Week 10 Prediction:
Florida Gators vs. Missouri Tigers
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Steve Spurrier-Florida Field
(Gainesville, FL)

It’s been nearly a month since the Florida Gators have suited up inside of their own terrain. Florida saw their SEC championship hopes eliminated last week in that crucial clash against Georgia. It was the ‘Dawgs day, and with the loss, the Gators now turn their focus to finishing sharp down the stretch and making a statement that they have arrived in the SEC despite not going to Atlanta. If Florida can win their final four games, it would mark a 10-win season and a probable New Year’s Six invite, all in Dan Mullen’s first season. If that happens, then the Gators will be poised to sink their teeth in the Bulldogs next season as that would be the obvious next step for this program.

So, Florida’s November slate features the next three weeks back in Gator country, and then a trip to Tallahassee to conclude the regular season. The first of that three-game home-stand, and the only game that matters for right now, is this weekend’s homecoming game against Missouri. Homecoming is an important time of year at UF, with many assortments of parties, parades, Fall Break, and of course the famous Gator Growl rally. The Homecoming setting is a great way for the Gators to move on from last weekend’s heartbreak.

For the Missouri Tigers, everything stops and ends with the arm of Drew Lock. Lock was a preseason All-SEC First Team quarterback selection, and the senior has given Florida fits before. Lock only threw for 228 yards last season against Florida but had 3 TD passes and completed 3 quarters of his passes. Of course, that was last season, when UF was a shell of who they’re supposed to be and are now. But at the same time, Florida is coming off of their worst defensive performance of the season last week against Georgia. Similar to Jake Fromm from last week, Lock has surprisingly struggled this season, only throwing 16 TD passes to this point, compared to 44 last season. Perhaps the reasons behind Lock’s issues are due to losing his OC Josh Heupel as he is now the head coach of the unbeaten UCF Knights. Former Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley took over for Heupel and the results have not been the same for the Tigers, at least up until now.

Despite the underwhelming year so far from Lock, he is not to be taken lightly, but I do like Florida’s defense at home. C.J. Henderson is expected to be back after injuring his back last week in Jacksonville. Henderson’s absence was so impactful in that game against Georgia, as Fromm picked on his replacement C.J. McWilliams after he exited the game. This UF secondary is depleted, and although Henderson’s return is certainly helpful, Florida’s defensive line has to return to their problematic form. UF had 1 sack on Fromm last week, that’s right—1. One sack against the Bulldogs from a team that had already piled up 21 on the season, which was the best in the SEC. That singular statistic alone is a big reason behind Georgia’s emergence last week, and why Florida has to pick up the pieces from here. Florida’s defensive line has to put pressure on Lock and not give him time to find open receivers against this secondary that was torched at times last week.

Also, the Gators are going to have to account for tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, who is probably Lock’s favorite target. I’m assuming that it will be a little Vosean Joseph, a little Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, maybe some Kylan Johnson, but this has to be a point of emphasis after having no answer for Georgia’s Isaac Nauta last week. Okwuegbunam along with receiver Emanuel Hall are Lock’s go-to options, but there is a plethora that Lock will look to include. The Gators have to acknowledge their services on the perimeter and eliminate big plays. Much like last week, Florida’s secondary will be tested against Lock and company.

As I pointed out last week, Florida has to become more sound in gap assignment. It’s like the Gators will blow up running plays for a few drives, and then all of a sudden, they’re gutted up the middle un-explicably. Missouri might not feature quite the explosiveness in their backfield of D’Andre Swift or Elijah Holyfield, but Larry Rountree and Damarea Crockett can be dangerous if given space, and both can run for power between the tackles. The Gators need to swallow up the Tigers on the ground, force Lock into third and difficult situations, and then tee off with their front, something that they could not do last week.

I could go on and on about last week’s defensive struggles, but to be honest, the defensive effort could have resulted in a win. Now, I’m not exactly giving the Gator defense credit when I say that. Time and time again, the Gators allowed Fromm and the Bulldogs to swing the momentum back their way. But at the end of the day, this offense and more specifically Feleipe Franks, was ultimately the difference. Georgia has a veteran leader at quarterback who could make passes in tight coverages. Franks has not figured that out yet, at least not consistently. Franks was erratic for most of last week’s game against the Bulldogs. Now, Franks definitely will not see a secondary blanket like he had to deal with last week for the rest of the way.

Missouri’s defense has progressed in recent weeks compared to their early season struggles both with pressuring the QB and in coverage. No better case in point than last week against Kentucky, where the Tigers had 3 sacks, 3 hurries, and 7 tackles for loss against Kentucky. Franks needs to be weary of Mizzou’s secondary mates DeMarkus Acy and Christian Holmes, who play physical in coverage, similar to what Franks saw last week. Franks will have opportunities down the field, and Florida’s receivers will get open with regularity. But Franks cannot continue to play poorly if Florida wants to leap into the elite status.

All of that said, Florida didn’t attack Georgia on the ground for the full 60 like they probably should have, and much of that is because the Bulldogs led most of the game. Florida needs to get back to their best attribute, and this should revitalize this offense and possibly get Franks back on track.

Prediction:

You have to wonder which teams’ psyche is more stabilized at this point after coming off tumultuous losses. Mizzou has the type of attack to give Florida problems, and I do think they’ll hit the Gators a few times. Florida’s defense has used more of a bend-but-don’t-break approach defensively in too many games this season, and last week that finally came back to bite them. Each team will have their moments in what should be moderately competitive throughout. I think it might take Florida until the second half to assert their dominance. I look for Mizzou to hang around and make it interesting, and you’ll just keep wondering when Florida will pull away with some breathing room. I really don’t know if that’s going to happen, but Florida’s defense will make the stand they need in the 4th quarter to put the Tigers to bed.

Florida 29
Missouri 23