Week 5 Prediction: Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

It’s been talked about all offseason. What’s not usually considered a major game on the Florida Gators schedule took a totally different dynamic when Dan Mullen took his talents to the Swamp.

In my previous article, I noted that I didn’t know of any former coaches that went back to their previous job as an opposing coach the very next season. Actually, this will be the first time since 2008 when former Arkansas head coach Houston Nutt returned to his stomping grounds as the head man at Ole Miss. Nutt’s reception wasn’t exactly the friendliest as he was not at all welcomed back to Fayetteville on the other side. That is sure to be a similar response when Mullen runs out of the tunnel as the head coach of the Florida Gators. It should be mentioned that Nutt’s Rebels won that game against Arkansas, and Mullen is hopeful for that same result in this weekend’s showdown with Mississippi State.

Outside of that storyline, there’s actually a game on Saturday evening. Florida enters Davis Wade Stadium coming off of a momentum-building road win against a rival, but also have some things they need to work out. Defensively, the Gators rose to the challenge against a Tennessee front that is frankly not very good. The Bulldogs will present a much more formidable challenge up front in terms of their physicality, and we’ll see if the Gators can duplicate that same dominance. Mississippi State will look to run the football behind their talented QB Nick Fitzgerald, who can run between the tackles and has the speed to get outside. Fitzgerald is by far the best running QB that the Gators will see this season, and possibly the best in college football in general.

Joining Fitzgerald in the backfield will be the electric Kylin Hill and do-it-all back Aeris Williams. Hill is off to a big year so far, and Williams has been ever dependable for three seasons for the Bulldogs. A crucial stat in this game is whichever team can win the battle up front probably walks out winners. Florida needs to stop the run and Mississippi State has to be effective at running the football. That simple.

Fitzgerald is averaging less than 200 yards a game through the air, so it’s not like he and the offense are exactly lighting it up. Florida has that advantage and needs to force Fitzgerald and company into obvious passing situations. That starts with stopping this powerful running game. The Gators have never needed their front seven to play bigger than this weekend. UF cannot depend on turnovers week in and week out as a strategy to victory. Mississippi State will not beat themselves the way that Tennessee did.

For UF offensively, they will also be challenged by the best defensive line they have seen to date. Yes, I feel that despite the loss to Kentucky last week, the Bulldogs are better up front, and especially when it comes to blowing up the pocket. That will be a major advantage for the Bulldogs against a shaky, at best, offensive line, and a QB in Feleipe Franks that constantly folds under pressure. Florida was dominated up front by Kentucky, and although they have made some strides— they also have not seen anything like this front from Mississippi State led by Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons, two of league’s best D-lineman. The Bulldogs are second only to Alabama in sacks with 13 through their 4 games, and rank 8th in the NCAA in total defense. For an inconsistent Florida offense— the Gators have their work cut out for them in terms of having success moving the football on the road.

With that said— Mullen knows this team on the other sideline, perhaps even better than his current team at this point. Mullen knows each player at every position— their strengths and their weaknesses. After all, Mullen built this team from the ground up, and instilled the winning culture in Starkville to what it is today.

So, taking all of that into account…

Prediction:
Florida wins if they can stop the run, create turnovers, and turn those takeaways into points. There is no doubt that Mississippi State will be ready for Mullen and the Gators, but nobody is talking about UF bringing some heat of their own from the Swamp. In a tight game throughout that will come down to the last possession, Florida’s defense will step up to the challenge and save the game late in a nail biter in Starkville. The Gators get a major statement win on the road and put the entire SEC on notice.

Florida 23
Mississippi State 19