Florida Gators Bracket Tips and Probabilities
By Brett Kaplan
Mar 16, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; Florida Gators center Patric Young (4) and head coach Billy Donovan celebrate defeating the Kentucky Wildcats in the championship game for the SEC college basketball tournament at Georgia Dome. Florida won 61-60. Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-USA TODAY Sports
The Florida Gators earned the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday, but that doesn’t always mean they’re a lock to win it all. ESPN’s esteemed analysts have all picked the 4-seed Michigan State Spartans to cut down the nets in Dallas and some of the analysts don’t even have Florida making it out of the South. They have 2-seed Kansas, a team Florida beat earlier this season, taking out the Gators in the Elite 8. I’m sure you could just as well as the talking heads on TV.
But what if you had statistical analysis available to you that most people can’t understand. Statistician Nate Silver has put together numbers better than anyone else in the world recently and he’s got the statistical probability of every team in the NCAA Tournament. His website, FiveThirtyEight, debuted Monday just in time for the tourney. Here’s the interactive table giving the probabilities of the 68 teams.
This is the chances Florida has to make it past whichever foe each round. They’ve got the best chance in the South Region to make it to the Final Four with a 41% chance. If you also notice, the Gators have a 14% shot to win it all. That may not seem like very good odds, but consider the only team higher is Louisville at 15%. It’s worthwhile to see how Silver and FiveThirtyEight arrive at these conclusions, so go and check it out.
You could take a more layman’s route and do the analyzing yourself. Our friends at All Over The Hill have this to say:
"1) Do your research. Obviously there are thousands of statistics analysts throw at their viewing audience each March. It’s essential that fans decipher the relevant from irrelevant numbers. Points scored and allowed are the obvious numbers, but remember to look beyond the obvious toward three-point shooting, free throw, and field goal percentages when selecting who will make it to the sweet sixteen.2) Go with your gut. When it boils down to your final decision trust your instincts. At this point in the season, you’ve probably have seen most of the teams play during the regular season and trust your own eye test when making your final decision.3) Shooters get you to the round of 16. As you very well know, anyone can win in the opening rounds, and most of these upsets occur when outside shooters get hot. When picking upsets, focus on team’s top players as well as their three-point shooting percentage because sometimes there are players no one can guard."
I’d add one more. Always pick a 12-seed over a 5-seed. Do your research to find out which 5-seed is most ripe and go for it. This happens nearly every year.
I also happened to be watching TV this morning and a Numbers Never Lie spot came on with ESPN’s Michael Smith. While I don’t normally watch that particular show, he did have some insight as to how to choose your brackets, along with who has the best chance of cutting down the nets in Dallas. I think you’ll like what he says:
There’s the Vegas route as well. While this way doesn’t go through the entire tournament yet, you can get a good feel for how bookmakers feel about certain teams. Bookies don’t like losing money, so most of the time, it’s a safe bet to go with the favorites. Right now, according to Bovada.lv, Florida is the odds on favorite with 5-1 odds, followed by Michigan State (6-1), Louisville (13-2), and Arizona (9-1). You can check out all 68 teams odds here.
Moral of the story: Don’t listen to analysts and do some research. But let’s be honest. Your significant other who’s picking teams based on fiercer mascots has just as good of a chance as you to succeed and pick the winning bracket. Don’t forget to print out the bracket (below) and have some fun. Good luck and Go Gators!
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