Predicting The Florida Gators Record After The Loss To The Alabama Crimson Tide

Florida has experienced it’s first loss and quite possible not it’s only one of the season. The loss to Alabama not only set some areas of the team back, but our win predictions as well. This is the first loss we’ve had to deal with since we started this journey and it had quite the impact; although not as much as we might have thought.

The find out what this all means, go here for the original post. Here’s the short version: One Eyed Willy and I looked at every game on each SEC team’s schedule and predicted how many times out of 100 they would beat their opponent. Each week we go back and revise our predictions for the Gators based on what occurred. It could be based on Florida’s play or that of their future opponents, but things change. First and foremost is the game that just happened. If the Gators win, we bump that game to 100. If they lose, it drops to zero. Here’s what happened after the first loss…

For a little history, we start with how we originally mapped out Florida:

And here’s where we were before the Alabama game:

Sadly, here’s where we are after the loss to the Tide:

The Alabama total is now zero, but that doesn’t hurt as much as it might seem. Accordingly to our original prediction, Florida was supposed to lose that game. That doesn’t make it sting any less, but for statistical purposes, it’s not as painful as it could be.

The next change comes right behind the loss to Bama. Willy took 10 points off of the LSU total to put the Gators chances at 20. I wasn’t as kind as I went from 35 to 15. I would love to see Jeff Driskel come out and light the world on fire in his first start, but I have a very hard time believing that will happen. Sure Florida’s run game could return to where it was only two weeks ago. Sure the defense could rediscover their tackling mojo. Regardless, too many signs point to the Tigers.

The next two were minor moves. We both drop Auburn by 10 to 60 and Willy moved Georgia from 70 to 65. Yes, we both still have the Gators favored in those games. If John Brantley is back and the pass game is as real as it looked for the portion of the Bama game during which Brantley could stand, Florida could still have some success ahead. Add that to the fact that neither of us are really sure what to think of the Tigers or Bulldogs just yet, and you get little movement.

The final move comes with FSU. For one week, Willy and I differed on a game in terms of it being a win or a loss. We no longer do. I drop the Gators chances against the Seminoles by a mere two wins and give the immediate advantage to FSU. No, that was not very easy to type.

We’re back to an 8-4 season. Out of six of these, four have fallen in that range. At 4-1 with a loss to a very good Alabama team, Florida is right were many expected them to be, so the drop back to eight wins shouldn’t come as a surprise. We’ll see if another loss keeps the Gators above that line, or perhaps what an upset win will do.